Browse Data and Analysis

This biannual report, published in June and December, includes data on U.S. and global trade, production, consumption and stocks, as well as analysis of developments affecting world trade in coffee.

Honduran Coffee Production is expected to reach 5.4 million 60-kilogram bags in marketing year (MY) 2021/22, a seventeen percent reduction from the previous year. Heavy weather conditions for a higher incidence of leaf rust are forecast and are expected to impact production directly.

MY 2022/23 coffee production is expected to decrease 4 percent to 1.15 million bags due to high fertilizer prices and dry conditions at the beginning of the marketing year. Post forecasts MY 2022/23 exports will decline 4 percent to 1.05 million bags due to lower exportable supplies.

Post revised the Vietnam marketing year 2021/2022 (MY 2021/22) coffee production estimate up to 31.58 million bags, green bean equivalent (GBE), on higher yield. Post revised MY 2021/22 exports up to 27 million bags thanks to increased exports in the first quarter of 2022, potentially steady demand, and the possibility of logistics improvements.

ATO/Sao Paulo forecasts the Brazilian coffee production for Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23 (July-June) at 64.3 million 60-kg bags, an increase of 11 percent compared to the last crop. Although Arabica trees are on the on-year of the biennial production cycle, production should be constrained by adverse weather conditions in 2021.

Guatemala maintains its 305,000 Ha of coffee, but harvested area is slightly reduced due to higher production costs, both inputs and labor. Production costs raised 32 percent as fertilizer prices continue doubling and migration is negatively impacting labor availability.

Mexico coffee production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is projected at 3.84 million 60 kg/bags, on optimal weather conditions during the fruit development stage in the top producing states that will improve yields, and sustained strong global prices that will incentivize optimal harvest.

Post forecasts marketing year (MY) 2022/23 coffee production (Oct/Sep) to increase by 3.8 percent to 5.74 million 60-kilogram bags. Above normal pre-monsoon rains coupled with expectations of an early onset of normal monsoon are expected to improve yields, especially for Robusta in major growing regions.

In marketing year (MY) 2022/23, Colombia's coffee production is forecast to remain unchanged at 13 million bags of green bean equivalent (GBE). Although weather conditions are expected to be normal, crop productivity has the potential to be negatively impacted as a result of lower fertilizer use due to rising prices.

Central America and the Caribbean, with their close geographical and economic ties to the United States, have always been an important market for U.S. agricultural exports.