India: Coffee Annual

Post forecasts marketing year (MY) 2022/23 coffee production (Oct/Sep) to increase by 3.8 percent to 5.74 million 60-kilogram bags. Above normal pre-monsoon rains coupled with expectations of an early onset of normal monsoon are expected to improve yields, especially for Robusta in major growing regions. Farmgate prices are trading at decade high rates; however, producers continue to face rising input costs. Post forecasts exports to increase by 2.4 percent to 5.98 million 60-kilogram bags, but supply chain issues persist. The rise of specialty cafes is leading to the emergence of a new generation of coffee drinkers, but inflationary pressures may disrupt consumer spending. Stocks will likely remain limited due to strong export prospects.