Browse Data and Analysis

On November 1, 2021, the Government of Morocco suspended customs duties on durum wheat, common wheat, and its derivatives (1001.99.00.19 and 1001.99.00.90) until further notice.

Wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2021/2022 is estimated at a record 21.8 million tons, 1.3 million tons higher than the official USDA number. In consequence, exports are increased to 15.2 million tons (including flour in its wheat equivalent).

Australia is set for a second consecutive record grain crop following two years of drought. For the winter crops, wheat production is estimated to have reached another record in marketing year (MY) 2021/22 and barley production is expected to be the third largest in history, just slightly behind the previous year.

Canada’s wheat marketing year 2021/22 was defined by drought, fires, atmospheric rivers, and the resilience of Canada’s rail transportation sector. Canadian wheat export volumes are down 37 percent (August to November 2021) from the previous year, though wheat exports by value are 95 percent of the value earned the previous year, due to strong global prices.

On November 24, 2021, the Indian government approved the extension of the additional free food grains scheme through March 31, 2022. With this extension, an additional 16 million metric tons (MMT) of grains will be released from government stocks.

The Mexican Ministry of Health is proposing changes to the existing NOM-187 published in 2003. The purpose of the amendment is to establish the classification, ingredients, and specifications that products derived from corn and wheat need to meet.

On December 31, 2021, Turkey announced a revised tariff list for a number of products. According to a Presidential Decree published in the Official Gazette, the import tariffs on wheat, corn, rye, barley, oats, chickpeas, and lentils, has been eliminated through December 31, 2022.

Given the pace of imports during the first six months of 2021/22, the wheat import forecast is reduced from 2.5 to 2 million tons. With harvest complete and better than expected yields, the 2021/22 rice production estimate is increased from 8.2 to a record 8.9 million tons.

Canadian biofuel production remains below what Post estimates is needed to meet federal standards. Limited production makes it unlikely Canada will become a major player in the global ethanol market.

A rapidly growing middle class in North Asia is expected to boost demand for U.S. agricultural exports over the next decade.