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This provides an update to the report Citrus Annual_Brasilia_Brazil_BR2024-0043. The report has been edited from its original version to revise estimates and update the Post forecasts for production, consumption and exports.

Post forecasts China’s overall citrus production in MY2024/25 will grow from MY2023/24, despite weather related challenges. Orange production is decreasing slightly due to the naturally smaller Navel crop year, while the production of tangerine/mandarins as well as pomelos/grapefruit will continue to grow.

Early seasonal conditions for the MY 2024/25 citrus crop have been very favorable. Along with expansion in production area, growers anticipate an improvement in production and the prospect of high-quality fruit production. Orange production is expected to increase five percent to 545,000 metric tons (MT) from the prior’s year estimate, the highest over the last two decades.

Korea’s marketing year (MY) 2024/25 citrus production is forecast down 2.6 percent to 565,000 MT, a 10-year low, on gradually declining acreage and adverse weather conditions. Jeju Island, where nearly all Korean citrus is grown, experienced a prolonged summer heat wave lasting into mid-September, followed by excessive fall rain, which caused fruit cracking and rot.

Post expects Morocco’s Tangerine/mandarin production for MY 2024/25 to reach an estimated 1.1 million metric tons, increasing 16 percent over MY 2023/24, orange production should increase by 17 percent over the previous year to 960,000 MT, while lemon/lime production will reach 45,000 MT.

In contrast to the production surplus in MY 2023/24, total citrus production is expected to decrease 36 percent in MY 2024/25 to around 5 million metric tons (MMT) due to excessive heat during the blooming period and drought conditions during the harvest period. Due to projected decreased production, it is expected that citrus prices at supermarkets will increase.

The Brazilian orange crop for Marketing Year (MY) 2024/25 is forecast at 320 million 90-pound boxes (MBx) - standard reference, equivalent to 13 million metric tons (MMT), a decrease of 15 percent compared to the previous Post estimate for MY 2023/24 (378 million boxes or 15.42 MMT).

In Marketing Year (MY) 2024/25 growers in South Africa are forecast to divert more citrus volumes towards processing as elevated prices make juicing a lower risk alternative. The production of orange, grapefruit, tangerine/mandarin and lemon in MY...

Peruvian mandarin/tangerine production and exports are expected to increase two and four percent, respectively in MY 2024/2025 (April 2025 to March 2026). Production is forecast to reach 570,000 metric tons (MT), while exports are forecast at 225,000...

Israel’s planted citrus area in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 is forecast to be lower than MY 2023/24 figures due to low profitability and water shortages, which has disincentivized farmers to plant new citrus plots. This year, the war also had a...

Mandarin production in Japan continues to decline because of high summer temperatures, in addition to a decreasing number of farmers and planted acreage. Such factors are not anticipated to markedly increase citrus imports from the United States...

For Marketing Year (MY) 2024/2025, Post forecasts a reduction in fresh lemon production due to persistent rainfall during the blooming period, which is expected to adversely affect fruit development. Similarly, for MY 2023/2024, Post adjusts its...