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This provides an update to the report Citrus Annual_Brasilia_Brazil_BR2024-0043. The report has been edited from its original version to revise estimates and update the Post forecasts for production, consumption and exports.

Post forecasts China’s overall citrus production in MY2024/25 will grow from MY2023/24, despite weather related challenges. Orange production is decreasing slightly due to the naturally smaller Navel crop year, while the production of tangerine/mandarins as well as pomelos/grapefruit will continue to grow.

Early seasonal conditions for the MY 2024/25 citrus crop have been very favorable. Along with expansion in production area, growers anticipate an improvement in production and the prospect of high-quality fruit production. Orange production is expected to increase five percent to 545,000 metric tons (MT) from the prior’s year estimate, the highest over the last two decades.

Korea’s marketing year (MY) 2024/25 citrus production is forecast down 2.6 percent to 565,000 MT, a 10-year low, on gradually declining acreage and adverse weather conditions. Jeju Island, where nearly all Korean citrus is grown, experienced a prolonged summer heat wave lasting into mid-September, followed by excessive fall rain, which caused fruit cracking and rot.

The Brazilian orange crop for Marketing Year (MY) 2024/25 is forecast at 320 million 90-pound boxes (MBx) - standard reference, equivalent to 13 million metric tons (MMT), a decrease of 15 percent compared to the previous Post estimate for MY 2023/24 (378 million boxes or 15.42 MMT).

Peruvian mandarin/tangerine production and exports are expected to increase two and four percent, respectively in MY 2024/2025 (April 2025 to March 2026). Production is forecast to reach 570,000 metric tons (MT), while exports are forecast at 225,000...

Mandarin production in Japan continues to decline because of high summer temperatures, in addition to a decreasing number of farmers and planted acreage. Such factors are not anticipated to markedly increase citrus imports from the United States...

For Marketing Year (MY) 2024/2025, Post forecasts a reduction in fresh lemon production due to persistent rainfall during the blooming period, which is expected to adversely affect fruit development. Similarly, for MY 2023/2024, Post adjusts its...

In marketing year (MY) 2024/25, due to the increase in area planted and assuming regular yields, Post estimates that lemon production will grow by 2.6 percent, reaching 197,000 metric tons (MT). Chilean lemon exports will increase 3.3 percent...

FAS/San José expects orange production to increase approximately 11 percent in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 to 250,000 metric tons. Production in MY 2023/24 was lower than previously expected at 225,000 metric tons as a result of erratic rainfall patterns associated with the El Niño weather phenomenon.

Peru’s mandarin/tangerine production and exports are expected to recover and increase by two and three percent, respectively, in MY 2023/2024 (March 2024 to February 2025). Production is forecast to reach 560,000 metric tons (MT), while exports are forecast to recover to 210,000 MT.

For marketing year (MY) 2023/24, Post updates fresh lemon production down to 1,700 metric tons (MT). This revision is attributed to the unexpected weather conditions with temperatures higher than usual and rains during harvest that affected original production estimates.