Despite a 1.5 percent decline in milk production to 30.1 MMT, low commodity milk prices are anticipated as weak demand balances with reduced milk supplies. Local producers are no longer benefitting from reduced competition resulting from the import embargo because consumer purchasing power continues to fall. Cheese production is forecasted flat, at 0.860 MMT, and butter production will decline 3.8 percent to 0.25 MMT. Belarus, as the supplier of nearly all projected dairy product imports, exerts strong pressure on the dairy market. Additionally, government dairy support and a new plan for intervention purchases will be key market determinants in 2016.