Browse Data and Analysis

A large portion of Australia’s winter cropping area is well-positioned, heading into the forecast year. In New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia, early seasonal conditions are favorable, indicating potential for strong wheat and barley production.

The European Parliament took an initial step to open market access for beet and oilseed planting seeds from Ukraine. The EU approved cereal planting seeds from Ukraine in 2020.

Unfavorable weather conditions in autumn 2024 resulted in decreased winter wheat area. Functioning maritime logistics in MY2023/24 and the first half of MY2024/25 kept shipping rates stable and have allowed Ukraine to quicky and cost efficiently export large volumes of commodities to distant markets.

Sugar production in 2025/26 is projected to reach 6.6 million tons, which is 13.7 percent higher than the 2024/25 estimated production. This increase is based on expectations for improved sugar content and average cane yield.

Australia’s sugar production is forecast to decline to 3.8 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2025/26, down from an estimated 3.85 MMT in MY 2024/25, marking the lowest level of production in over a decade.

Wheat production is projected to fall to 27.5 million tons in 2025/26 due to a decrease in cultivated area and extremely dry weather. This shortfall in domestic production is expected to lead to increased imports, forecast at 1.7 million tons.

Post forecasts Ukrainian farmers will maintain similar areas under oilseed production for marketing year (MY) 2025/26 as compared to the previous MY; however, Post forecasts the split among individual oilseeds will differ.

Ukraine took the first step to gain access to the Chinese market for peas by establishing a phytosanitary protocol.

Australian oilseed production, dominated by canola, is expected to be strong for the fifth consecutive season during the marketing year (MY) 2025/26.

After four successive years of big cotton crop production in Australia, the forecast for marketing year (MY) 2025/26 falls to 4.1 million bales, 13 percent above the previous 10-year average.

Following the resumption of genetically engineered soybean imports after two years, soybean imports are forecast to rebound to 2 million tons in 2025/26. With a slight increase in domestic production expected, rapeseed imports are forecast to decline.

Driven by a minor increase in area and assuming average yields, cotton production is expected to increase somewhat in 2025/26. With expectations for continued strong export demand, domestic use is forecast to grow modestly in 2025/26.