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Japan's vegetable oil and protein feed markets are mature and stable. While surging commodity prices and the shipping crisis impacted Japan's oilseed and product imports in the past, the situation has normalized.

Facing dry growing conditions and slumping cotton prices, Turkish farmers are expected to switch from cotton to produce more sunflowerseeds and other row crops in marketing year (MY) 2025/26.

On September 19, 2024, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) of the Government of Japan (GOJ) announced the exemption of domestic field trial requirements for genetically engineered (GE) soybean with familiar trait.

Sunflowerseed production in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 is forecast to drop to its lowest level in almost a decade due to extremely dry weather conditions in the northeast part of the country, where more than half of the production is concentrated.

In early August, Turkiye announced that it will open a lower-duty quota for 1.0 million metric tons of sunflower seed or crude sunflower oil equivalent, starting from January-April of next year.

On Monday, June 24, 2024, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) of the Government of Japan (GOJ) opened a public comment period for its revision for domestic field trial requirements of genetically engineered (GE) crops.

As of June 1, 2024, Turkiye’s Ministry of Trade has relaxed the ban on the export of bulk and barreled olive oil, allowing up to 50,000 tons of bulk and barreled olive oil to be exported until November 1, 2024. This decision, in response to negative sentiment from domestic industry, is expected to have a positive, though limited, impact on global olive oil prices.

The 2023 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world during the 2023 calendar year.

In relation to persistent rising food prices, Japan has seen a decline in overall vegetable oil consumption. Due to the more favorable crush margin for canola compared to soybeans, FAS/Tokyo forecasts a reduction in soybean imports and crush, while seeing an increase in rapeseed imports and crush for both MY 2023/24 and MY 2024/25.

Assuming the return of more favorable growing conditions and yields that are in line with historical averages, Turkey is expected to produce more sunflowerseed, cottonseed, and soybeans in MY 2024/25 compared to the previous year, which was marked by dry weather conditions in parts of the country.

MY 2023/24 sunflowerseed production is forecast at 1.6 million metric tons (MMT), which is down nearly 20 percent year-over-year because of drought-related losses in Thrace, Turkey’s leading sunflower producing region.

Turkiye announced a three-month export ban on olive oil in bulk and in barrels due to the shortage of olive oil production in Mediterranean countries and subsequent negative effects on domestic prices.