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Facing dry growing conditions and slumping cotton prices, Turkish farmers are expected to switch from cotton to produce more sunflowerseeds and other row crops in marketing year (MY) 2025/26.

Although domestic soybean production is forecast to reach a 20-year high in marketing year (MY) 2025/26, Korea will remain dependent on imports for 89 percent of total supply.

Sunflowerseed production in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 is forecast to drop to its lowest level in almost a decade due to extremely dry weather conditions in the northeast part of the country, where more than half of the production is concentrated.

In early August, Turkiye announced that it will open a lower-duty quota for 1.0 million metric tons of sunflower seed or crude sunflower oil equivalent, starting from January-April of next year.

As of June 1, 2024, Turkiye’s Ministry of Trade has relaxed the ban on the export of bulk and barreled olive oil, allowing up to 50,000 tons of bulk and barreled olive oil to be exported until November 1, 2024. This decision, in response to negative sentiment from domestic industry, is expected to have a positive, though limited, impact on global olive oil prices.

The 2023 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world during the 2023 calendar year.

Breaking with historical practice, Korean soybean crushers began operating below full capacity in mid-2023 and are forecast to further reduce crush volume into marketing year (MY) 2024/25. Soybean imports are forecast to recover slightly from MY 2023/24, but will still remain below average levels on sluggish crushing demand.

This report analyzes all vegetable oil markets in Korea, whether for food or industrial use, and covers oils derived from soybean, palm, palm kernel, olive, rapeseed/canola, grapeseed, sunflower seed, corn, coconut, sesame, perilla seed (a leafy plant from the mint family), and rice bran.

Assuming the return of more favorable growing conditions and yields that are in line with historical averages, Turkey is expected to produce more sunflowerseed, cottonseed, and soybeans in MY 2024/25 compared to the previous year, which was marked by dry weather conditions in parts of the country.

Ample opportunities exist for U.S. agricultural exports to South Korea. Highlighted in the chart above, U.S. agricultural product exports were a record $9.5 billion in 2022, up 2 percent from 2021. South Korea is the sixth largest export market for the United States, thanks in part to a successful free trade agreement (KORUS) between the two countries and a robust demand for high-quality U.S. food products.

MY 2023/24 sunflowerseed production is forecast at 1.6 million metric tons (MMT), which is down nearly 20 percent year-over-year because of drought-related losses in Thrace, Turkey’s leading sunflower producing region.

Turkiye announced a three-month export ban on olive oil in bulk and in barrels due to the shortage of olive oil production in Mediterranean countries and subsequent negative effects on domestic prices.