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FAS Manila forecasts an increase in milled rice production in Marketing Year (MY) 2025/26 compared to the previous MY, due to favorable weather conditions and an increase in government funding for the rice industry.

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) has approved the lowering of the milling recovery rate (MRR) of palay to rice from 65.4 to 63.0 percent.

The Philippine Department of Agriculture (DA) declared a food security emergency related to rice on February 3, 2025, citing an extraordinary increase in prices.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed Republic Act (R.A.) No. 12078 on December 9, 2024, which extended the implementation of the Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund (RCEF) until 2031.

FAS Manila forecasts lower milled rice production in Marketing Year (MY) 2024/25 compared to MY 2023/24 due to a series of weather disturbances. FAS Manila forecasts an increase in imports in MY 2024/25 to address reduced domestic production and increasing consumption attributed to population growth.

FAS Manila forecasts Marketing Year (MY) 2024/25 rice imports to reach 4.60 million metric tons (MT), given the implementation of Executive Order No. 62, 2024 that reduced rice tariff rates from 35 to 15 percent.

Despite record production and ample stocks, the Philippines is forecast to import a record volume of rice. Large imports are spurred in part by high domestic prices and the recent government decision to reduce tariffs from 35 to 15 percent.

The 2023 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world during the 2023 calendar year.

FAS Manila forecasts MY 2024/25 milled rice production will increase to 12.125 million MT as the country emerges from the current El Nino and government spending on inputs and machinery contributes to increased yield.

FAS Manila maintains its September 2023 forecast for rice and corn production and imports, but lowers its forecast slightly for wheat imports to 6.0 million metric tons.

FAS Manila expects rice imports to decline to 3.5 million MT as high prices in the international market and price ceilings ordered by the President disincentivize imports.

There are no changes to rice and corn production and imports, nor wheat imports for MY 2023/24.