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Continuing economic growth; increasing tourism; a healthy hotel, restaurant, and institutional sector; and a growing population will lead the UAE’s wheat and rice consumption to grow in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY).

On June 4, a Costa Rican court restored the Chaves administration's policy of dramatically lower tariffs on imported milled and rough rice, overturning an earlier court ruling that reversed the lower tariffs in April 2024.

FAS/San José anticipates Costa Rica's Ministry of Foreign Trade to allocate 2024 Dominican Republic - Central America Free Trade Agreement rice quota allocations by the end of April, effectively constraining the availability of U.S. duty-free rice to the final eight months of 2024. Though Costa Rica typically allocates quota volumes in December of the preceding year, calculations of 2024 volumes have been contested by importers following an extraordinary process resulting from a 2022 cyber attack.

Costa Rica reinstated 35 percent tariffs on non-U.S.-origin rice after an administrative court overturned an August 2022 tariff reduction and the Government’s appeal was rejected. Demand for U.S. rice has surged following the tariff restoration on reduced South American-origin rice competitiveness.

In MY 2024/25, Post forecasts imports by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) of all wheat, rice, corn, and barley to increase to meet high local demand. Strong tourism, population growth, and expanding poultry and dairy sectors will drive this demand.

U.S. rough rice exports have plummeted and the decline of Costa Rican rice production has accelerated sharply following the Government of Costa Rica’s August 2022 tariff rate reduction on imported rice from all origins.

Strong tourism, high petroleum rents, and an accompanying economic boom in the United Arab Emirates are forecast to grow the consumptive base and drive imports of wheat and rice higher in the coming marketing year.

On July 6, the Government of Costa Rica published a draft executive decree that would dramatically reduce tariffs on imported milled and rough rice. The vast majority of U.S. rice exported to Costa Rica in 2021 (valued at $25 million) entered under a duty free quota for rough rice established by the Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Agreement.

UAE’s overall economic recovery will boost consumption and imports of grain and feed in MY 2022/23. The Ukraine conflict and other factors contributing to high commodity prices and food security may put downward pressure on UAE consumption in MY 2021/22.

The United Arab Emirates’ consumption and imports of grain and feed are projected to increase over the coming year.

The United Arab Emirates’ consumption and imports of grain and feed are projected to increase over the coming year.

FAS Dubai (Post) forecasts UAE imports of wheat, rice, corn and barley to increase in MY2020/2021.