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A larger than average crop this year caused Kazakhstan to introduce export subsidies for shipping wheat to Europe and other Central Asian countries effective through September 1, 2025.

For marketing year (MY) 2025/26, Post estimates that the wheat area harvested will total 193,000 hectares (ha), representing a 1.0 percent decrease from MY 2024/25 due to high input costs and low prices.

Kazakhstan’s total wheat production has been revised up to 16.5 million metric tons as good weather during last year’s summer vegetative period resulted in a larger than average crop. Barley production estimates are raised slightly to 3.8 million metric tons.

Biblical rain in Kazakhstan’s major growing regions has cut wheat and barley production, reducing its quantity and quality.

Kazakhstan is expected to have a bumper crop following last year’s troubled production. After heavy rains and flooding in May 2024 delayed planting, Kazakhstan’s primary growing regions have had near perfect weather, greatly raising the outlook for the upcoming fall harvest.

Wheat production is expected to recover this marketing year as higher soil moisture raises yield. West and North Kazakhstan were impacted by heavy flooding, with the areas of Atyrau, Kostanay, and Almola most negatively affected.

For MY 2024/25, Post estimates that wheat area harvested will total 195,000 hectares (ha), a 2.5 percent decrease from MY 2023/24 to due to high input costs and low prices. Wheat production will reach 1.17 million metric tons (MMT).

Marketing year 2023/2024 wheat production is expected to drop sharply to around three-quarters of last year’s level as a result of the June drought and excessive rains in the fall of 2023 that affected Kazakhstan’s major grain producing Northern region.

As a result of very dry weather conditions in key growing regions and then high precipitation during harvest, Kazakhstan’s 2023 wheat production is expected to drop sharply to around three-quarter of last year’s level. Despite lower production, large...

According to government information releases and FAS-Astana contacts, spring grain planting was completed in early June and planting conditions were generally favorable, leading FAS-Astana to estimate no significant change to wheat and barley planted area in MY2023/2024.

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FAS Astana estimates wheat production at 16.4 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2022/2023, which is the largest production volume since MY 2017/2018. FAS Astana forecasts no significant change to wheat and barley planted area for MY 2023/2024.