Browse Data and Analysis

Recent available data indicates that Saudi Arabia imported approximately 2.7 million metric tons (MMT) of barley in the first six months of MY 2022/23 (July – December 2022), an increase of approximately 11% compared to the same period last year (2.46 MMT).

Wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2023-2024 is forecast to remain flat at 1.2 million metric tons. Production will remain flat despite a larger harvested area as Post projects a return to trend from high yields in the previous season.

Post forecasts MY 2023/24 wheat production at 3.3 million metric tons (MMT) and barley production at 1.4 MMT, in line with the previous season as climatic conditions are similar.

FAS Tel Aviv (Post) forecasts Israel’s wheat imports to reach 1.70 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2023/24, a 2.8 percent decrease from Post’s MY 2022/23 figure.

FAS/Tokyo projects reduced corn imports and feed consumption in MY2022/23 due to large outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza as well as increased competition from domestic feed rice, followed by a recovery of corn consumption in MY2023/24.

Bulgaria harvested a 26 percent lower grain crop in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 compared to MY2021/22, including reductions of 12 percent for wheat, 11 percent for barley, and 26 percent for corn.

FAS-Astana estimates Kazakhstan’s wheat production reached 16.4 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2022/2023, which is the largest production volume since MY 2017/2018. In addition to wheat, barley production also recovered due to favorable weather and precipitation conditions in northern grain producing regions.

Due to dry conditions, Argentine wheat production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is forecast down at 15.5 million metric tons (MMT), 2 MMT lower than the official USDA estimate. As a consequence wheat exports are lowered to 10 MMT. Barley exports for MY 2022/23 are also forecast down at 3 MMT, 500,000 MT lower than official USDA projection as result of lower production and slower farmer selling.

FAS-Astana forecasts no significant change to wheat and barley planted area for marketing year (MY) 2022/2023. After production declined due to hot and dry weather last MY, wheat production in MY 2022/2023 rebounded to an estimated 14.5 million metric tons (MMT).

Nigeria wheat millers are diversifying their sources of wheat import due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. FAS Lagos (Post) estimates wheat imports for MY 2022/23 at 6 million metric ton (MMT), a 3 percent reduction from last year’s Post estimate. Meanwhile, insurgency and floods in the northern part of the country greatly impacted corn and rice production respectively.

Australia is on the path to a third consecutive bumper grain crop in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 after a record setting winter crop and strong summer crop production in MY 2021/22. After another strong start to the planting season followed up by great rainfalls, there is ample moisture to carry the wheat and barley crops through the grain fill stage.

Venezuela's economic recovery continues, strengthening Venezuelans' purchasing power and consumption. As a result, in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 wheat consumption is revised up 4 percent compared to USDA's official forecast, while imports will increase to 1.3 million MT. The United States remains the largest supplier of hard red winter wheat to Venezuela.