Browse Data and Analysis

Wheat exports for marketing year (MY) 2022-2023 are forecast at 6.2 million tons (including wheat flour), 1.3 million tons lower than USDA’s official volume because of smaller beginning stocks, larger domestic consumption and larger ending stocks.

New Zealand grain and feed import volumes in 2022 rose to the highest level ever, importing 3.7 million metric tons (MMT), up 13 percent from the previous year. National grain and feed demand continues to outstrip domestic supply by nearly double, with New Zealand producing 2.1 MMT in 2022, but consuming an estimated 5.8 MMT.

For MY 2022/23, Post maintains its forecast wheat production at 3.3 million metric tons (MMT), and barley at 1.2 MMT. Post forecasts MY 2022/23 barley imports at 772 thousand metric tons, in line with the import volume seen last year.

Corn, rice, and sorghum production forecasts are revised downward in marketing year MY 2022/23, while the wheat production estimate is increased to 3.6 MMT.

UAE’s overall economic recovery will boost consumption and imports of grain and feed in MY 2022/23. The Ukraine conflict and other factors contributing to high commodity prices and food security may put downward pressure on UAE consumption in MY 2021/22.

Morocco is facing low wheat production in marketing year 2022/23 due to drought. The Ministry of Agriculture forecasts total wheat and barley production at 3.2 million metric tons, about 62 percent down from the previous year’s crop (10.2 million metric tons).

Wheat production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is forecast slightly lower than the USDA official forecast based on updated industry and Mexican government data that reflect adverse weather conditions.

Executive Order #171, Series of 2022, modifies market access for MFN tariffs on corn and rice through December 31, 2021, necessitating changes to Post’s corn and wheat balance sheets but not rice.

On April 20, the Government of Serbia (GoS) lifted its prohibition on the export of wheat, corn, flour, and refined sunflower oil. In its place, introduced monthly export quotas. On April 30, the GoS increased export quotas on wheat and wheat flour.

FAS New Delhi (Post) is lowering its India market year (MY) 2022/2023 (April-March) wheat production forecast to 99 million metric tons (MMT) compared to the pre-harvest forecast of 110 MMT. The MY 2022/2023 wheat exports forecast is lowered to 6 MMT and ending stocks to 8.5 MMT due to tightening supplies.