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On March 15 and 17, the General Administration of Customs of China renewed or extended the facility registrations by five years for approximately 14 U.S. dairy, 210 U.S. poultry, and 365 U.S. pork establishments.

China is a significant market for U.S. swine genetics; U.S. live (breeding) swine exports to China were valued at $15.7 million in 2023.

Post maintains its 2025 forecast on the decline of both pork and beef production. Due to the decline in domestic beef production and growing market demand, Post forecasts beef imports to grow in 2025. Post revised downward its 2025 pork import forecast to levels similar to 2024 owing to depressed demand.

In 2025, Post forecasts both pork and beef production to decline. Lower domestic beef production is expected to help fuel further beef imports. However, Post forecasts pork imports in 2025 to remain at similar levels to 2024. Post forecasts pork consumption to decline in 2025 because of headwinds facing the economy and higher domestic pork prices.

The 2023 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world during the 2023 calendar year.

Post forecasts economic headwinds will continue to impact consumption of both pork and beef in 2024. Swine and pork production in 2024 will be marginally down 3 percent as persistently low live hog and pork prices weigh on producers.

The economy of People’s Republic of China (PRC) is facing headwinds for the remainder of 2023 that should continue into 2024 even though officials are exploring various stimulus efforts.

The 2022 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world during the 2022 calendar year.

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) decision to end its zero-COVID policy restrictions is expected to improve demand for both pork and beef products in 2023.

U.S. agricultural exports to China in fiscal year (FY) 2022 were $36.4 billion and surpassed the previous year’s record with China as the largest export market for the second consecutive year. Significantly higher agricultural prices and resilient demand helped drive exports above the previous year’s record despite lower volumes for most products.

Since September 8, 2022, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) National Development Reform Commission (NDRC) has auctioned 127,100 metric tons (MT) of frozen pork reserves as an attempt to curb rising prices. However, despite numerous auctions and other PRC market guidance, domestic prices continue to rise.

In 2023, imports of breeding swine and pork are expected to decline to 5,000 head and 1.85 million metric tons (MMT), respectively, due to lower domestic hog and pork prices. Consumer price sensitivity and competition among producers are expected to constrain pork and hog price increases, squeezing margins. Strong carryover stocks of beef cattle from 2022 into 2023 will support an increase in cattle and beef production to 52.575 million head and 7.4 MMT, respectively.