China: Livestock and Products Semi-Annual

Post maintains its 2025 forecast on the decline of both pork and beef production. Due to the decline in domestic beef production and growing market demand, Post forecasts beef imports to grow in 2025. Post revised downward its 2025 pork import forecast to levels similar to 2024 owing to depressed demand. The report forecast reflects animal disease policies/restrictions and trade policies in place as of March 3, 2025 and assumes their continuation. Post acknowledges but does not include in its forecast the potential impacts of recent retaliatory tariffs announced on March 4, 2025, by the Chinese Government, which come into effect on March 10, 2025, as well as the impending registration expirations of hundreds of U.S. meat establishments as they are not in effect at the time of this publication. Market access for U.S. beef and pork remains constrained as the Chinese government is not implementing relevant annexes for meat trade specified in the Economic and Trade Agreement (i.e., Phase One Agreement).