Browse Data and Analysis

On March 15 and 17, the General Administration of Customs of China renewed or extended the facility registrations by five years for approximately 14 U.S. dairy, 210 U.S. poultry, and 365 U.S. pork establishments.

China is a significant market for U.S. swine genetics; U.S. live (breeding) swine exports to China were valued at $15.7 million in 2023.

Post maintains its 2025 forecast on the decline of both pork and beef production. Due to the decline in domestic beef production and growing market demand, Post forecasts beef imports to grow in 2025. Post revised downward its 2025 pork import forecast to levels similar to 2024 owing to depressed demand.

In 2025, beginning inventories and beef production declined due to the increased pace of slaughter in 2024. Beef consumption remains weak due to inflation, with a shift toward less expensive proteins such as pork.

FAS/Tokyo forecasts cattle inventory expands in 2025 on greater cow beginning stocks and a moderate pace of slaughtering from 2024.

In 2025, Post forecasts both pork and beef production to decline. Lower domestic beef production is expected to help fuel further beef imports. However, Post forecasts pork imports in 2025 to remain at similar levels to 2024. Post forecasts pork consumption to decline in 2025 because of headwinds facing the economy and higher domestic pork prices.

The 2023 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world during the 2023 calendar year.

Post forecasts economic headwinds will continue to impact consumption of both pork and beef in 2024. Swine and pork production in 2024 will be marginally down 3 percent as persistently low live hog and pork prices weigh on producers.

FAS/Tokyo projects Japan’s beef production in 2024 will be almost flat from 2023 because fewer cows will be culled now that milk production has dropped enough to match demand.

The economy of People’s Republic of China (PRC) is facing headwinds for the remainder of 2023 that should continue into 2024 even though officials are exploring various stimulus efforts.

FAS/Tokyo forecasts a drop in 2024 cattle inventory on greater slaughtering of dairy cows, slower calf production, and no live cattle imports in 2023 and 2024.

In April 2023, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries (MAFF) implemented a special measure under the Compound Feed Price Stabilization System to augment feed compensation payments to livestock, poultry, and swine producers.