Browse Data and Analysis

Argentine beef exports in 2025 are forecast to decline to 770,000 metric tons carcass weight equivalent (CWE), primarily due to a projected decrease in beef production and production costs in dollar terms that are higher than those of neighboring competitor countries.

Favorable pricing and weather conditions for New Zealand cattle farmers have resulted in a retention of finishing cattle on farms and less slaughter in 2024. Farm operations face challenges with continuing financial pressure such as high debt, increasing on-farm inflation, and declining farmgate margins.

Argentine beef exports in 2025 are projected at a record 860,000 tons, carcass weight equivalent (cwe) as beef production is forecast to increase marginally.

FAS/Wellington 2025 market year production forecast would be the highest annual production on record, If realized. In addition, post is forecasting that beef and veal exports in 2025 to also be the highest volume for New Zealand in a single year.

Following a gradual decline in the national cattle herd over the previous years, breeding cow numbers for beef and dairy are looking to stabilize in 2024. At the end of 2023, a new national coalition government was elected.

Argentine beef exports in 2024 are projected up at 920,000 tons carcass weight equivalent, 20,000 tons higher than USDA official.

Since reaching peak numbers in 2016, the New Zealand national cattle herd has been gradually declining, and this is expected to continue in 2024.

Beef production in 2024 is projected at 3.12 million tons carcass weight equivalent (CWE), down marginally from 2023, a year with high slaughter levels because of a severe drought.

After three years of dry weather conditions which have challenged the Argentine beef cattle industry, Post estimates that Argentine cattle slaughter and beef production will both drop in 2023, in line with official USDA estimates.

Since hitting peak numbers in 2016, the New Zealand national cattle herd has been very gradually declining and this is expected to continue in 2023.

Argentine cattle stock, cattle slaughter, beef production, consumption and export volumes are all forecast to remain practically unchanged in 2023. China is expected to continue as the main export destination, potentially accounting for more than 70 percent of the 770,000 tons carcass weight equivalent (CWE) projected exports. Despite strong global beef demand and good prices, current, government imposed, export restrictions are projected to prevent Argentina from shipping larger volumes.

New Zealand is expected to have already reached “peak” cattle numbers, and FAS/Wellington anticipates a very gradual decline in both dairy and beef cow numbers in the near future. One of the major influences on this is New Zealand governmental policy, and in particular regulations regarding livestock exclusion around certain water sources, as well as proposed pricing of agricultural emissions.