Since hitting peak numbers in 2016, the New Zealand national cattle herd has been very gradually declining and this is expected to continue in 2023. This is largely a result of policies associated with waterway exclusions, winter grazing restrictions, nitrogen leaching, and pricing agricultural emissions all impacting the sector and driving some land use change from livestock to forestry. FAS/Wellington is forecasting slightly lower adult cattle slaughter in 2023, although calf slaughter is expected to rise. Overall beef production and exports are also forecast to decline slightly. Although New Zealand beef exports are forecast to ease, they are still expected to remain strong as a result of robust demand in key markets, improved logistics, and a weak New Zealand dollar.