Browse Data and Analysis

Favorable pricing and weather conditions for New Zealand cattle farmers have resulted in a retention of finishing cattle on farms and less slaughter in 2024. Farm operations face challenges with continuing financial pressure such as high debt, increasing on-farm inflation, and declining farmgate margins.

FAS/Wellington 2025 market year production forecast would be the highest annual production on record, If realized. In addition, post is forecasting that beef and veal exports in 2025 to also be the highest volume for New Zealand in a single year.

Paraguayan beef exports in 2025 are forecast down at 450,000 tons carcass weight equivalent with an expected smaller beef supply after a very large slaughter in 2024.

Following a gradual decline in the national cattle herd over the previous years, breeding cow numbers for beef and dairy are looking to stabilize in 2024. At the end of 2023, a new national coalition government was elected.

Since reaching peak numbers in 2016, the New Zealand national cattle herd has been gradually declining, and this is expected to continue in 2024.

Highlight: Beef production and exports in 2024 are projected to increase marginally. Exports at 445,000 tons carcass weight equivalent would be the second highest on record.

Since hitting peak numbers in 2016, the New Zealand national cattle herd has been very gradually declining and this is expected to continue in 2023.

Paraguayan beef exports in 2023 are forecast to decline to 390,000 tons carcass weight equivalent, the second drop in a row thanks to declining cattle production. The country is suffering from the third consecutive year of La Niña conditions, which leads to dry weather in most regions.

New Zealand is expected to have already reached “peak” cattle numbers, and FAS/Wellington anticipates a very gradual decline in both dairy and beef cow numbers in the near future. One of the major influences on this is New Zealand governmental policy, and in particular regulations regarding livestock exclusion around certain water sources, as well as proposed pricing of agricultural emissions.