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Mexican cattle exports to the United States resumed in February 2025 after a 70-day pause due to a New World screwworm detection.
In 2025, high domestic meat demand and lower prices of animal feed for both cattle and swine are expected to drive up overall cattle, beef, pig crop, and pork production. Despite relatively high inflation levels for food products, beef consumption is expected to grow as consumers shift purchases to more affordable meat cuts.
FAS Manila forecasts 2025 beef/carabeef and pork imports at 226,000 and 510,000 metric tons carcass weight equivalent, respectively. Strong economic growth, moderating inflation, and forecast population increases support higher meat imports in 2025.
The 2023 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world during the 2023 calendar year.
Lower feed prices are expected to boost producer profits in 2024, thereby increasing domestic beef and pork production. Beef imports are forecast to decrease, and pork imports are expected to remain nearly flat.
FAS Manila forecasts beef imports to remain flat at 200,000 MT Carcass Weight Equivalent (CWE) in 2024 because of low demand for imported beef.
Beef and pork production in 2024 is forecast to increase due to stronger producer returns from lower feed prices, as well as increased domestic and international demand.
The 2022 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world during the 2022 calendar year.
FAS Manila estimates beef production to increase slightly to185,000 MT for 2023 because of efforts of commercial farms to increase production. Beef imports are expected to increase slightly to 260,000 MT in line with population growth.
In 2023, Mexico’s beef production is forecast to slightly increase, but faces slower consumption growth on a year-to-year basis as food inflation soars. As herd numbers increase, overall cattle slaughter is expected to rise. Carcass weights are expected to marginally decrease in 2023 and are offset by larger slaughter numbers of slightly younger animals.
Post forecasts Mexico’s calf crop at 8.45 million head for 2023. Post forecasts cattle exports for 2023 at 1.2 million head, a slight increase from the 2022 estimate. Post forecasts beef production for 2023 at 2.22 million metric tons (MMT) carcass weight equivalent (CWE), almost a two percent increase from 2022.