Browse Data and Analysis

A number of factors have converged over the last 18 months to send global agricultural commodity prices to near-record levels. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – and the potential loss of Ukrainian exports – was the latest development to push commodity prices higher.

The Philippines is the largest market for U.S. soybean meal (SBM) and a top coconut oil exporter. The country is also a major palm oil market for neighboring ASEAN countries. The loosening of COVID-related restrictions and the corresponding economic rebound are expected to support greater demand for soybean meal.

South Africa experienced an upward trend in oilseed production (soybeans and sunflower seeds) driven largely by rising oilseed prices, higher yielding cultivars, and a local demand-pull from investments in new oilseed processing plants.

Taiwan’s soybean imports are projected to reach 2.63 and 2.65 MMT in MY2021/22 and MY 2022/23. Soybean import demand will be buoyed by steady feed demand as well as exports and demand for soybean oil. In MY 2020/21, Taiwan’s COVID-19 control restrictions in Q2-Q3 had some negative impact on demand from the HRI sector, especially for soybean oil and palm oil which are favored in commercial use.

Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23 soybean imports are expected to increase 5 percent from a slow import growth in MY2021/22, driven by the recovery in hotel and food service sector. Palm oil production in MY2021/22 and MY2022/23 is expected to continue the upward trend.

India’s oilseeds production in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 (October-September) is expected to extend its momentum and reach 42.1 million metric tons (MMT), a one percent increase over the MY 2021/22 crop. Both rising animal feed demand and the anticipated growth in oilseed supply will further increase oil meal production by two percent to 20.7 million metric tons.

In MY 2021/22, profit margins of Japanese soybean crushing surpassed those of canola crushing. Meanwhile, as hotel, restaurant, and institutional service industries (HRI) began to recover from the effects of the COVID pandemic, demand for soybean oil spiked as canola oil demand dropped with less home cooking than during the peak crisis period.

Australian oilseed production, dominated by canola, is expected to be strong again in marketing year (MY) 2022/23, after big crops in MY 2021/22. Canola production is forecast in MY 2022/23 at 4.7 million metric tons (MMT), down from the record-busting crop estimated at 6.35 MMT in MY 2021/22, but if realized would still be the second largest crop in history.

As Vietnam looks to rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic through economic recovery packages and loosening of restrictions, total animal feed demand is forecast to increase to meet animal production demands.

Edible oil prices have been trending higher and are now increasingly volatile due to poor market transparency and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Post forecasts MY 2022/2023 soybean imports up to 2.8 million MT, while local soybean production remains flat.

Indonesia palm oil production is expected to reach 46 million metric tons (MMT) in 2022/23 on favorable weather and higher producer profit margins. Palm oil exports for 2021/22 are revised down from the previous update due to the Government of Indonesia’s domestic market obligation (DMO) requirement, which increased to 30 percent from 20 percent.

Due to the poultry industry’s slow recovery and sluggish consumer demand for edible oils, no significant growth in oilseed and edible oil use is forecast for 2022/23. Likewise, soybean, canola, and palm oil imports in 2022/23 are forecast to remain similar to 2021/22 levels.