Browse Data and Analysis

The volume of U.S. fresh, dried, and processed fruit exports between 2012/13 and 2021/22 dropped 29 percent to 2.9 million metric tons[1]. However, a 25-percent gain in unit value during this period softened the decrease in value to just 11 percent lower as trade dropped $700 million to $6.0 billion.

Mandarin (Citrus unshiu) production in Japan continues to gradually decrease along with a falling number of farmers. Overall Japanese citrus consumption fell as the price of imported citrus, including oranges, grapefruit and lemons, increased due to a combination of shipping challenges, inflation, and Japanese yen depreciation.

Orange production is expected to decline in Australia in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 to 505,000 metric tons (MT) from an estimated 535,000 MT in MY 2021/22. However, exports are forecast to rise to 180,000 MT from an estimated 145,000 MT in MY 2021/22, due to an anticipated substantial improvement in fruit quality.

Reduced open field "Unshu" mandarin harvest in the southern part of Jeju Island will drive Korea's total citrus production down slightly in 2022/23. Overall fruit quality is expected to be above average following reduced rainfall during the growing period, with higher Brix and lower sourness levels.

China’s avocado production and imports are estimated to grow as the demand for high-quality fresh avocados continue to rise. Top consumers are females, under 35 years of age, and residing in first-tier cities.

The outlook for the 2022/23 apple season in New Zealand is much more optimistic with the opening of international borders following COVID-19 restrictions. While the last two apple harvests were severely impacted by the lack of labor, the return of overseas workers under the Recognized Seasonal Employer (RSE) scheme is expected to help allow a recovery in production, with the forecast up 12 percent from the previous year’s estimated crop.

On November 4, 2022, the Korea Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation (aT) announced the results of the 2022 U.S. orange tariff rate quota (TRQ) allocations. Korea switched to a new license allocation system this year, replacing the import rights auction process used in prior years. A key piece of the new allocation system is that 80 percent of the total TRQ is reserved for importers with historical import volumes, while the remaining 20 percent is reserved for new importers.

China’s apple and pear production is expected to drop by 11 percent and 5 percent, respectively, on year to 41 MMT and 17.85 MMT in MY 2022/23, because of weather abnormalities and farmers reducing acreage of bearing trees. Table grape production is estimated to continue increasing by 5 percent to 12.6 MMT on improved crop management. Apple imports will likely rebound strongly due to consumer demand for new varieties developed by major suppliers. Table grape imports will further decline because of the improved quantity and quality of domestic supplies.

Korea’s 2022/23 pear production is projected to increase by 16 percent, driven mostly by increased yields due to favorable weather. Korean pear consumption is projected to rise by 14.3 percent following a 6 percent fall in market prices, with the balance of increased production going to exports. Fresh pear imports (including U.S. origin) are not allowed under Korea’s existing phytosanitary regulations.

Taiwan’s domestic apple production rose to 1,458 MT in MY 2021/2022, though production area continues to shrink due to economic, trade, and environmental factors. Taiwan’s apple demand remains strong and consumption is almost entirely import dependent. Total imports in MY 2021/2022 were 151,260 MT and are forecast to increase to 154,000 in MY 2022/2023. The United States holds the largest market share by volume, though New Zealand is rapidly gaining market share and enjoys a tariff advantage.

Australia’s table grape production is expected to increase to 210,000 MT in marketing year (MY) 2022/23, from an estimated 180,000 metric tons (MT) in MY 2021/22. This is with the expectation of slightly improved harvest labor availability and better seasonal conditions at harvest. Despite expanded vine plantings in recent years now coming into fruiting, production has been hindered by challenges.

Malaysia was the 25th largest export destination for U.S. agricultural products in 2021 and is a top prospect for exports of food and beverage ingredients because of its large and growing food processing industry. Food and beverages manufactured in Malaysia not only serve domestic consumers but are also exported to many neighboring countries. U.S. exporters of dairy products, fresh and processed potatoes, food-grade soy, processed fruit and juices, tree nuts and more have many opportunities to supply Malaysian industry which depends on imports for key ingredients and inputs, and in doing so will reach consumers across Malaysia and throughout Southeast Asia.