Browse Data and Analysis

In 2024, Australian beef supply has surged and is projected to reach the second-highest production level on record in 2025. This anticipated expansion follows a major turning point in 2024, with production estimated to increase by 14 percent from 2023 and 34 percent from the 2022 low.

Post forecasts 2025 chicken meat imports will be maintained at 190,000 metric tons (MT). Although chicken meat imports have been declining for years due to devaluation of the Angolan currency (kwanza), growing food price inflation, significant limitations on foreign exchange are expected to continue to repress imports, resulting in 2024 and 2025 reflecting the lowest level of consumption since 2016.

In 2025, high domestic meat demand and lower prices of animal feed for both cattle and swine are expected to drive up overall cattle, beef, pig crop, and pork production. Despite relatively high inflation levels for food products, beef consumption is expected to grow as consumers shift purchases to more affordable meat cuts.

Mexico is the sixth largest poultry producer and fifth largest consumer globally. In 2025 production is forecast to grow as higher private investments in poultry sector and improved feed prices are expected to boost industry-wide productivity.

Post forecasts that chicken meat production will increase by three percent to 1.65 million tons in Marketing Year (MY) 2025 as a result of a strengthening domestic sector. Post raises the 2024 production estimate by 6 percent to 1.59 million tons as the industry has rebounded from the 2023 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak.

FAS Bangkok (Post) expects chicken meat production to increase slightly in 2024 due to limited supplies of day-old chicks and the slow recovery in domestic consumption amid strong export demand.

Chicken meat production for 2025 is forecast to hit a record after a below average performance the previous year. Most of the anticipated increase in production will go for domestic consumption, which continues to grow since chicken is expected to remain significantly cheaper than beef.

The UAE’s chicken meat production is forecast to grow by 17 percent in 2025, supported by governmental initiatives such as feed subsidies and technological investments. Consumption is expected to rise by 6 percent due to population growth, increased consumer spending, and a thriving tourism sector.

FAS/Tokyo projects that in 2024 as well as 2025 Japan’s annual poultry production will expand to meet strong demand for domestically produced chicken.

Uruguayan beef exports in 2025 are forecast to remain unchanged at 475,000 tons carcass weight equivalent (cwe). The final volume will depend on how active Chinese buyers are the remainder of the year and FOB prices. Exports to the United States are projected to remain high.

Brazil is the third-largest cattle producer and second-largest beef exporter in the world. Post forecasts decreased slaughter in 2025, due to the forecasted start of the reversion of the cattle cycle. Producers are likely to start retaining cattle in 2025, driving calf prices upwards.

On August 21, 2024, the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) of the People's Republic of China (PRC) announced that it had initiated an anti-subsidy (i.e., countervailing duty or CVD) investigation on imports of certain dairy products originating from the European Union.