Browse Data and Analysis

The wheat and barley harvest is continuing in Turkey, approximately two weeks behind the normal harvest schedule this year. Wheat production is forecast at 17.25 Million Metric Tons (MMT), and barley production is forecast at 7.4 MMT in Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23. The first corn crop planting finished with total corn production forecast at 6.2 MMT.

Australia is expected to produce a third consecutive big grain crop in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 after a record setting winter crop and strong summer crop production in MY 2021/22. Another broadly favorable set of conditions around the time of winter grain planting and the early growth phase across most production regions bodes well for wheat and barley production in MY 2022/23.

Wheat exports for marketing year (MY) 2022-2023 are forecast at 12.35 million tons, l.15 million tons lower than USDA’s official number as a result of lower production. The wheat and barley crops are suffering very dry weather. Barley exports in MY 2022-2023 are forecast at 3.7 million tons, the same as in MY 2021-2022.

The weak southwest monsoon in first half of June 2022 slowed ongoing plantings of the kharif (fall harvested) season crops. Plantings will recover under adequate soil moisture conditions with the revival of monsoon starting the third week of June, along with expected normal precipitation in July. On July 6, India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry notified authorizing the export of wheat flour and other products (Harmonized Tariff System - HS code 1101) only on the recommendation of Inter-Ministerial Committee on the Export of Wheat.

Post revises China's Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23 feed demand upward by 4.5 million metric tons (MMT) based on recovering demand for hog feed. Rice substitution for corn in feed rations may play a more significant role because of price advantages over corn and other corn substitutes. Post adjusts wheat production in MY2022/23 upward by 2 MMT to 135 MMT based on improved growing conditions.

Post increased its corn production forecast for Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23 to 120 million metric tons (MMT) based on strong demand, increased prices in the domestic and international markets, and diminishing uncertainty over the availability of fertilizers. For MY 2021/22, Brazil’s corn planted area is set to reach new records.

UAE’s overall economic recovery will boost consumption and imports of grain and feed in MY 2022/23. The Ukraine conflict and other factors contributing to high commodity prices and food security may put downward pressure on UAE consumption in MY 2021/22.

Morocco is facing low wheat production in marketing year 2022/23 due to drought. The Ministry of Agriculture forecasts total wheat and barley production at 3.2 million metric tons, about 62 percent down from the previous year’s crop (10.2 million metric tons).

Wheat production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is forecast slightly lower than the USDA official forecast based on updated industry and Mexican government data that reflect adverse weather conditions.

Executive Order #171, Series of 2022, modifies market access for MFN tariffs on corn and rice through December 31, 2021, necessitating changes to Post’s corn and wheat balance sheets but not rice.

On April 20, the Government of Serbia (GoS) lifted its prohibition on the export of wheat, corn, flour, and refined sunflower oil. In its place, introduced monthly export quotas. On April 30, the GoS increased export quotas on wheat and wheat flour.

FAS New Delhi (Post) is lowering its India market year (MY) 2022/2023 (April-March) wheat production forecast to 99 million metric tons (MMT) compared to the pre-harvest forecast of 110 MMT. The MY 2022/2023 wheat exports forecast is lowered to 6 MMT and ending stocks to 8.5 MMT due to tightening supplies.