The EU’s grain harvest in MY2020/21 is forecast to decline over 11MMT to 304 MMT, in large part due to extremely challenging planting conditions in the UK and France. Those two countries experienced a very wet fall and a long, mild and wet winter. Together, this has disrupted plantings and raised disease concerns. Elsewhere, much of the EU also experienced some disruption to planting, albeit on a much lesser scale, and a mild winter. While production in those countries is currently broadly forecast unchanged year-on-year, they share the aforementioned concerns regarding disease. There are also concerns that the crop is susceptible to a late frost. As always, much will depend on the planting and growing conditions over the coming weeks and months. Necessarily, the big unknown for both the remaining months of MY2019/20 and for MY2020/21 is the impact of COVID-19 on the grain balances. The forecasts do not currently reflect substantial changes but this situation will need to be monitored closely.