China: Livestock and Products Annual

Overall swine production and slaughter will hit record lows in 2020 as African Swine Fever continues to impact China’s hog industry. However, the supply decline will bottom out in 2020 and 2021 beginning hog and sow inventories will be up by 9 percent and 15 percent, respectively. Robust slaughter in 2021 will drive pork production up to 41.5 million tons, from the record low level of 38 million tons in 2020. The 2021 ending pig inventory is forecast up at 370 million head, equivalent to over 80 percent of preASF levels. Total pork imports will peak in 2020 at 4.3 million tons and decline to 3.7 million tons in 2021 as domestic supply recovers. Beef production will continue increasing in 2021, forecast at 6.9 million tons. Robust imports of beef in the first quarter of 2020 were met with weak domestic demand due to COVID-19 shutting down much of the HRI sector and a general economic downturn in China. 2021 beef imports are forecast down to 2.7 MMT.

China: Livestock and Products Annual