China: Cotton and Products Annual
Post’s forecast for MY18/19 cotton planted area is 3.38 million hectares (MHa), up from the estimated 3.35 MHa in MY17/18. The area expansion is supported by the government’s continued subsidies and higher cotton profitability. However, forecast MY18/19 cotton production is 5.9 million tons (MMT), slightly down from the estimated 6 MMT in MY17/18. Cotton use is expected to increase to 8.7 MMT in MY17/18, and forecast to rise to 8.8 MMT in MY18/19. The narrowing gap between domestic and global cotton prices contributed to the consumption recovery, but also resulted in lower yarn imports. In MY17/18, China continues to focus on reducing its state cotton reserves. Hence, MY18/19 total ending stocks are forecast to fall to 7.4 MMT, down significantly from the 10.5 MMT at the end of MY16/17. Anticipating sales of cotton reserves and continuing restrictions on additional import quotas, China’s cotton imports are expected to be 1.1 MMT in MY17/18, almost unchanged from the previous year and the second lowest level in 13 years. That said, China’s cotton imports are forecast to rise to 1.4 MMT in MY18/19. This is under the assumption that the government will issue additional import quotas to meet the textile industry’s demand for higher-grade foreign cotton to help them stay competitive in export markets.
China: Cotton and Products Annual
