Browse Data and Analysis

FAS/Nairobi forecasts a 19.8 percent drop in Kenya’s MY 2025/26 sugar production to 650,000 metric tons, from 810,000 metric ton (MT) in MY 2024/25, on an expected reduction in harvested area and lower sugar extraction rates.

FAS/San José expects sugar production in marketing year 2024/2025 to decline by seven percent to 394,000 metric tons (MT). Lower production is the result of adverse weather conditions during the development stage of the sugarcane, as well as during the early stages of the harvest.

For marketing year (MY) 2025/26, Post forecasts a slight increase in cotton imports due to increasing demand in the ready-made garments industry.

For marketing year (MY) 2025/26, Post forecasts lower rice imports than in MY 2024/25, assuming higher production based on favorable weather. Demand for wheat continues to increase and Post forecasts slightly higher imports for MY 2025/26 to align with demand.

On Friday, March 7, 2025, Kenya’s Court of Appeal put a hold on the trade and cultivation of genetically engineered (GE) products until an appeal filed by the Kenya Peasants League is fully heard.

FAS Nairobi forecasts Kenya’s marketing year 2025/26 corn production to increase by 15.8 percent due to a return to normal weather, following an unusually dry year.

The installation of Bangladesh’s Interim Government in August 2024, has led to a renewed focus on macroeconomic stability, which will enable increased exports to the market as restrictions on Letters of Credit ease as foreign currency reserves stabilize.

In 2024, Kenya’s avocado production declined by 11.2 percent to 562 thousand metric tons (TMT), driven by reduced rainfall.

Kenya's dairy sector is one of the most advanced in East Africa, and the second largest in Africa in terms of herd size. The industry remains an important part of the Kenyan agricultural economy, contributing 17 percent to agricultural GDP and 3.8 percent of the total national GDP. The sector is still largely informal, with only 15 percent of total milk processed in 2023.

For the marketing year (MY) 2024/25, Post lowers rice harvested area and production to 11.4 million hectares and 36.6 million metric tons (MT), respectively, due to an estimated loss of around 300,000 hectares of aman season rice from two consecutive floods in August and October 2024.

FAS/San José expects orange production to increase approximately 11 percent in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 to 250,000 metric tons. Production in MY 2023/24 was lower than previously expected at 225,000 metric tons as a result of erratic rainfall patterns associated with the El Niño weather phenomenon.

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