Browse Data and Analysis

FAS/Nairobi forecasts a 19.8 percent drop in Kenya’s MY 2025/26 sugar production to 650,000 metric tons, from 810,000 metric ton (MT) in MY 2024/25, on an expected reduction in harvested area and lower sugar extraction rates.

Production for Jamaica sugar is projected to fall to 33,000 metric tons (MT) for marketing year (MY) October 2025 to September 2026, consistent with the ongoing downward trend observed in the industry.

Sugar production in 2025/26 is projected to reach 6.6 million tons, which is 13.7 percent higher than the 2024/25 estimated production. This increase is based on expectations for improved sugar content and average cane yield.

Wheat production is projected to fall to 27.5 million tons in 2025/26 due to a decrease in cultivated area and extremely dry weather. This shortfall in domestic production is expected to lead to increased imports, forecast at 1.7 million tons.

Following the resumption of genetically engineered soybean imports after two years, soybean imports are forecast to rebound to 2 million tons in 2025/26. With a slight increase in domestic production expected, rapeseed imports are forecast to decline.

Driven by a minor increase in area and assuming average yields, cotton production is expected to increase somewhat in 2025/26. With expectations for continued strong export demand, domestic use is forecast to grow modestly in 2025/26.

On Friday, March 7, 2025, Kenya’s Court of Appeal put a hold on the trade and cultivation of genetically engineered (GE) products until an appeal filed by the Kenya Peasants League is fully heard.

FAS Nairobi forecasts Kenya’s marketing year 2025/26 corn production to increase by 15.8 percent due to a return to normal weather, following an unusually dry year.

Jamaica’s pork market is valued at an estimated $40 million per year. While domestic production meets household and retail demand, it falls short of supplying the total market.

U.S. soybean exports to Pakistan have resumed after Pakistan removed a 2-year functional ban. On February 18, 2025, Pakistan received its first U.S. soybean shipment of 65,000 tons, and U.S. exporters will soon ship approximately 200,000 more tons.

In 2024, Kenya’s avocado production declined by 11.2 percent to 562 thousand metric tons (TMT), driven by reduced rainfall.

There are no significant changes to the 2024/25 wheat production, supply and demand outlook. Due to slight reductions in both area and yield, the 2024/25 rice production estimate is revised down to 9.5 million tons.