Browse Data and Analysis

FAS/Nairobi forecasts a 19.8 percent drop in Kenya’s MY 2025/26 sugar production to 650,000 metric tons, from 810,000 metric ton (MT) in MY 2024/25, on an expected reduction in harvested area and lower sugar extraction rates.

On Friday, March 7, 2025, Kenya’s Court of Appeal put a hold on the trade and cultivation of genetically engineered (GE) products until an appeal filed by the Kenya Peasants League is fully heard.

Total Saudi wheat imports for 2025/26 are forecast to decline 10 percent to 3.2 million metric tons (MMT), due to projected high local production. Saudi barley imports for MY 2025/26 are projected to increase by 10 percent to 3.3 MMT compared to last MY.

FAS Nairobi forecasts Kenya’s marketing year 2025/26 corn production to increase by 15.8 percent due to a return to normal weather, following an unusually dry year.

In 2024, Kenya’s avocado production declined by 11.2 percent to 562 thousand metric tons (TMT), driven by reduced rainfall.

The HRI sector is witnessing remarkable growth, fueled by urbanization, a surging population, rising disposable incomes, shifting social and cultural trends, and a thriving tourism industry. The Saudi food retail market, currently valued at $30 billion, is projected to grow by another $15 billion by 2030.

Kenya's dairy sector is one of the most advanced in East Africa, and the second largest in Africa in terms of herd size. The industry remains an important part of the Kenyan agricultural economy, contributing 17 percent to agricultural GDP and 3.8 percent of the total national GDP. The sector is still largely informal, with only 15 percent of total milk processed in 2023.

The ongoing transformation of Saudi Arabia bodes well for the retail food sector. In 2023, the Saudi food retail market was estimated at more than $51 billion and projected to increase by more than 5 percent annually in the coming years due to the continued urbanization, growing population, changing shopping habits, expansion of physical store locations , and increasing popularity of online platforms.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s (KSA) regulations allow the importation of biotech plant products, but they are required to be labeled if they contain more than one percent genetically engineered (GE) plant ingredients. As a result, many retail packaged food importers do not import biotech foods due to concerns that biotech labeling could jeopardize their image.

With the notable exception of Bt. cotton, biotech products are not allowed to be produced, imported, or marketed in Kenya. On October 30, 2024, Kenya’s High Court is expected to make a ruling on the biotechnology case challenging the production and trade in genetically engineered (GE) agricultural products.

Total Saudi wheat imports for 2024/25 are forecast to reach 4.25 MMT, an increase of 2 percent over marketing year (MY) 2023/24.

The Kenyan dairy and beef sectors are important drivers of the country’s economic growth, yet both sectors are unable to meet domestic demand. The challenges facing Kenya’s dairy and beef sectors present opportunities for U.S. technical capacity building in research, knowledge, and technology transfer.