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Thai export rice prices experienced downward pressure and then slightly recovered after Songkran holidays, reflecting tariff changes and adjustments in the global rice market.

MY 2025/26 sugar production is expected to further increase 2 percent from MY 2024/25. MY 2024/25 sugar demand by industrial uses is likely to decline significantly due to the Chinese ban on Thai sugar syrup exports.

Sugar production in 2025/26 is projected to reach 6.6 million tons, which is 13.7 percent higher than the 2024/25 estimated production. This increase is based on expectations for improved sugar content and average cane yield.

Wheat production is projected to fall to 27.5 million tons in 2025/26 due to a decrease in cultivated area and extremely dry weather. This shortfall in domestic production is expected to lead to increased imports, forecast at 1.7 million tons.

FAS Dar es Salaam expects a ten percent decline in corn exports for marketing year (MY) 2025/26 as production decreases and strict export permit procedures continue to stymie shipments.

FAS Bangkok forecasts stability, with modest growth expected in rice and corn production, supported by favorable weather and strong domestic demand.

MY 2025/26 soybean crushing demand to grow at a slower pace of two percent due to slow economic recovery with uncertainties from the U.S. reciprocal tariff measures.

Following the resumption of genetically engineered soybean imports after two years, soybean imports are forecast to rebound to 2 million tons in 2025/26. With a slight increase in domestic production expected, rapeseed imports are forecast to decline.

Driven by a minor increase in area and assuming average yields, cotton production is expected to increase somewhat in 2025/26. With expectations for continued strong export demand, domestic use is forecast to grow modestly in 2025/26.

U.S. soybean exports to Pakistan have resumed after Pakistan removed a 2-year functional ban. On February 18, 2025, Pakistan received its first U.S. soybean shipment of 65,000 tons, and U.S. exporters will soon ship approximately 200,000 more tons.

Thailand's beef market offers significant growth potential for U.S. beef exports, particularly in the frozen beef segment. U.S. frozen boneless beef has grown by 24% from 2018 to 2023, reaching a total export volume of 1,083 tons in 2023.

All grades of Thai rice have experienced downward pressure on both domestic farm-gate and export prices.