Browse Data and Analysis

FAS/Cairo (Post) forecasts Egypt’s soybean imports in marketing year (MY) 2025/26 (October – September) to increase by 5.0 percent from the previous marketing driven by a flexible exchange rate, the availability of forex and a more positive outlook for the livestock sectors.

Sugar production in 2025/26 is projected to reach 6.6 million tons, which is 13.7 percent higher than the 2024/25 estimated production. This increase is based on expectations for improved sugar content and average cane yield.

Wheat production is projected to fall to 27.5 million tons in 2025/26 due to a decrease in cultivated area and extremely dry weather. This shortfall in domestic production is expected to lead to increased imports, forecast at 1.7 million tons.

While small local grocers dominate the Egyptian retail market, representing more than 50 percent of sales by value, convenience and price will continue to drive the majority of Egyptian consumer buying decisions, presenting growth opportunities across all retail channels.

Following the resumption of genetically engineered soybean imports after two years, soybean imports are forecast to rebound to 2 million tons in 2025/26. With a slight increase in domestic production expected, rapeseed imports are forecast to decline.

Highly favorable winter growing conditions set Tunisia up for a well above average 2025 harvest. The wheat and barley crops have developed very well entering the most critical growing period in April.

Post forecasts Egypt’s MY 2025/26 cotton production at 320,000 bales, down 25 percent from the previous season due to a significant decrease in area harvested.

Egypt’s wheat imports for marketing year 2025/26 are estimated at 13.0 million metric tons, unchanged from Post’s estimate in the previous marketing year which was revised upward by 4 percent due to the availability of forex contributing to an increase in imports.

Driven by a minor increase in area and assuming average yields, cotton production is expected to increase somewhat in 2025/26. With expectations for continued strong export demand, domestic use is forecast to grow modestly in 2025/26.

On March 12, 2025, the Government of Egypt (GoE) filed a ninth addendum to the World Trade Organization (WTO) Committee on Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) – G/TBT/N/EGY/313/Add.9 – informing interested parties that it was excluding imports of milk and dairy products from the scope of its Halal certification requirements.

U.S. soybean exports to Pakistan have resumed after Pakistan removed a 2-year functional ban. On February 18, 2025, Pakistan received its first U.S. soybean shipment of 65,000 tons, and U.S. exporters will soon ship approximately 200,000 more tons.

Egypt is the leading aquaculture producer in Africa, producing approximately two MMT of fish annually. Aquaculture accounts for roughly 80 percent of Egypt’s fish production, primarily via private farms.