Browse Data and Analysis

Post expects Brazil to remain the world's largest producer of sugarcane and sugar in marketing year (MY) 2025/26. Total sugarcane production is forecast at 671 million metric tons (MMT), and total sugar production is forecast at 44.7 MMT, raw value.

FAS/Managua projects MY 2025/26 sugar production to reach 840,000 metric tons, up ten percent from MY 2024/25, assuming a more balanced rainy season and an increase in sugarcane plantations.

Market year (MY) 2025/2026 Venezuelan sugar production is forecast to grow upward to 415,000 metric tons on account of steady yields, continued access to crop inputs, and sustained profit margins within the sugar industry.

Post forecasts Mexico’s sugar production at 5.4 million metric tons raw value (MMT-RV) for marketing year (MY) 2025/26 (October 1 – September 30), 6 percent higher than the estimate for MY 2024/25. The increased production forecast is based on seasonal rains in several sugarcane-producing states during MY 2024/25 and an expected recovery of the planted area in MY 2025/26.

FAS/San José expects sugar production in marketing year 2024/2025 to decline by seven percent to 394,000 metric tons (MT). Lower production is the result of adverse weather conditions during the development stage of the sugarcane, as well as during the early stages of the harvest.

In market year (MY) 2025/2026, FAS Bogota (Post) forecasts Colombia’s sugar production to recover to 2.3 million metric tons (MMT) due to improved weather conditions from the weakening of the La Niña phenomenon and expected normal weather patterns, positively impacting sugarcane yields and sucrose content.

Production for Jamaica sugar is projected to fall to 33,000 metric tons (MT) for marketing year (MY) October 2025 to September 2026, consistent with the ongoing downward trend observed in the industry.

In MY 2023/24, Guatemala ranked as the world’s second most efficient sugarcane producer and fourth in overall sugar production efficiency. For MY 2025/26, production is forecast to remain steady, with planted and harvested areas unchanged from the previous two years, and growth expected in MY 2026/27.

Ecuador's sugar production in marketing year (MY) 2025/26 is forecast to reach 513,000 metric tons (MT), a decrease from MY 2023/24 estimate. Domestic consumption is forecast to remain stable with gradual increases expected in the coming years.

Sugar cane production in MY 2026 is forecast at 10.25 million metric tons while cane sugar production is forecast to reach 1.3 MMT. Sugar exports from Peru in MY 2026 are forecast at 150,000 MT while the United States is the principal destination under the U.S. sugar tariff-rate quota program.

Sugar production in El Salvador is forecast to reach 740,000 metric tons (MT) in marketing year (MY) 2025/26, with MY 2024/25 estimates revised down to 706,000 MT.

Sugar production in the Dominican Republic (DR) is forecast to reach 600,000 metric tons (MT) due to favorable rainfall conditions through the first half of marketing year (MY) 2025/2026 (October - September).