Browse Data and Analysis

Marketing year 2023/2024 wheat production is expected to drop sharply to around three-quarters of last year’s level as a result of the June drought and excessive rains in the fall of 2023 that affected Kazakhstan’s major grain producing Northern region.

On February 19, the Government of India (GOI) published a notification that rescinded -effective February 20- the import duty of 10 percent for cotton with a staple length above 32 millimeters (mm).

FAS Mumbai forecasts marketing year (MY) 2023/24 cotton production at 26 million 480 lb. bales on 12.7 million hectares area planted, unchanged from the previous forecast. A strong pace of new crop arrivals during the first four months of the MY indicates a much larger crop size than previous trade estimates.

FAS New Delhi estimates India’s rapeseed-mustard production for marketing year (MY) 2023/2024 (October-September) at 11.9 million metric tons (MMT), harvested from 9.3 million hectares following favorable cold weather during the rabi crop season.

FAS New Delhi projects India’s organic agriculture sector to be valued at $2.5 billion for the 2023/24 Marketing Year (MY). According to various sources, the domestic consumption of organic foods is trending upwards as the Indian consumer focus on health and wellness continues.

On December 7, 2023, India's Ministry of Finance issued Custom Notification No. 64/2023, exempting imports of yellow peas (harmonized tariff system [HS] code 0713.1010) from customs duties and the Agriculture Infrastructure and Development CESS (AIDC) effective December 8, 2023, through March 31, 2024.

Post slightly lowers the MY 2023/24 rice production forecast due to some minor aman season crop damage caused by a cyclone. Despite the reduced production, Post lowers the rice import forecast to 500 thousand MT, as the Government of Bangladesh maintains its high rice import tariff of 62.5 percent.

The Indian market remains a bright spot, as its economic growth continues in 2023. India is one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world despite the volatile geopolitical and economic conditions, India is on an upward trajectory.

No significant changes are made to 2023/24 rice and wheat supply and demand forecasts. Private sector wheat import commitments of about 1.4 million tons underpin the 2 million ton 2023/24 wheat import forecast.

Pakistan is the 24th largest export market for U.S. food and agricultural-related products, with U.S. exports surpassing $1.37 billion in 2022. The top U.S. exports to Pakistan were cotton, soybeans, pulses, tree nuts, dairy products, planting seeds, dairy cattle, and forestry products.

In March 2021, Kazakhstan put in place a ban on breeding cattle and ram exports. The ban remains in place. An annual, per operation export quota has been added for exports of bulls of 12-months of age or older and rams of 6-months of age or older; the quota is regularly updated.

Uzbekistan’s cotton production in marketing year (MY) 2023/24 is estimated at 621,000 metric tons (MT) (2.85 million bales). Cotton consumption in MY 2023/24 is forecast lower year-to-year at 599,000 MT (2.75 million bales) due to lower demand from importer countries like Turkiye and Russia for cotton yarn and fabric.