Browse Data and Analysis

The following is part of a series of reports prepared by the Agricultural Trade Offices (ATOs) in Monterrey and Mexico City, to provide background on local and regional markets of interest for current and prospective exporters of U.S. agriculture, food and beverage products.

The outlook for Mexican grain production in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 is higher year-on-year for corn, rice, and sorghum based on higher-than-average precipitation and a gradual recovery from exceptional drought conditions.

In 2025, high domestic meat demand and lower prices of animal feed for both cattle and swine are expected to drive up overall cattle, beef, pig crop, and pork production. Despite relatively high inflation levels for food products, beef consumption is expected to grow as consumers shift purchases to more affordable meat cuts.

Post forecasts production for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 at 0.85 million 480-lb bales, a similar level as in MY 2023/24. The planting area is expected to decrease due to farmers switching to more profitable crops. Constraints on planted area and yield include limited seed technology, high input costs, extreme temperatures, and drought.

Mexico is the sixth largest poultry producer and fifth largest consumer globally. In 2025 production is forecast to grow as higher private investments in poultry sector and improved feed prices are expected to boost industry-wide productivity.

The competent Mexican authorities which regulate food and agricultural imports and/or require official U.S. export certificates include the Secretariat of Agriculture (SADER), Secretariat of Health (SALUD), Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (SEMARNAT), and the Secretariat of the Treasury and Public Credit (HACIENDA).

This document provides an overview of major Mexican agricultural and food-product laws and regulations, as well as related import standards and regulations. Some products may be subject to regulatory oversight by several different Government of Mexico (GOM) agencies. Post recommends that U.S. food and agricultural exporters work with experienced and established customs brokers and importers.

Even as Mexico's consumers face high core and food inflation, post sees both overall dairy production and imports rising in 2023. Mexico’s milk and cheese production is forecast to rise in 2023 due to increased investments in dairy operations in key producing areas.

On October 19, 2022, the Government of Mexico published a decree to temporarily exempt select importers from payment of import duties for certain goods and to facilitate administrative procedures as applied to the importation of select basic goods (mostly food items).

On September 20, 2022, the Congress of the State of Mexico (one of Mexico’s 32 states) approved the Law for the Promotion and Protection of Local Corn Varieties. The law states that the Government of the State of Mexico will cooperate with Mexico's federal authorities to ensure that local corn varieties in the state are free of genetically engineered (GE) corn.

FAS-Mexico forecasts a nearly 6 percent decrease in sugar production to 6.16 million metric tons raw value (MMT-RV) during marketing year (MY) 2022/23 due to lower rainfall levels and higher input prices. Production for MY2021/22 increased by 8.2 percent to 6.56 MMT-RV, mainly driven by an abundance of rainfall during critical growing months, lower input costs, and historically high prices creating incentives to maintain planted area.

In 2021, exports of U.S. agricultural and related products to Mexico totaled $25.5 billion. In spite of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and logistical challenges, Mexico remained one of the most consistent markets for U.S. food and agricultural exports, especially for foodservice products. Mexico continued to maintain its open-door policy and welcomed 31.8 million international tourists in 2021, which boosted its hotel, restaurant and institutional (HRI) industries following a sharp decline in 2020.