Browse Data and Analysis

Post raised the forecast for India’s centrifugal sugar production in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 (October-September) to 35.5 million metric tons (MMT), due to adequate rainfall from the 2024 southwest monsoon.

With the outlook for the sugar industry largely unchanged from the previous report, no significant changes are made to the supply and demand tables.

No significant changes were made to the 2024/25 wheat supply and demand forecasts. Wheat imports and exports remain banned. The 2024/25 rice production forecast is unchanged at a record 10 million tons.

For marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 (August-July), post forecasts India’s almond production marginally lower at 4,150 metric tons (MT) (shelled basis), compared to last MY estimates.

Biblical rain in Kazakhstan’s major growing regions has cut wheat and barley production, reducing its quantity and quality.

Central Asia is a diverse, important corner of the world and a growing market for U.S. goods. Agricultural imports from the world for Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan totaled $11.6 billion in 2023 and have nearly doubled over the last three years, with the United States as the 11th largest trade partner at $196 million.

Soybean production in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 is estimated at 12.9 million metric tons (MMT) on favorable conditions and slightly higher area.

FAS Mumbai forecasts marketing year (MY) 2024/25 India cotton production at 25 million 480 lb. bales on 11.8 million hectares planted area, a two percent decrease in area from the previous forecast, as farmers have shifted cotton acreage to higher return crops such as paddy, and pulses.

On May 24, 2022, India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry/Directorate General of Foreign Trade issued notification No. 10/2015-20, amending its sugar export policy. The notification specifies that exports of raw, refined, and white sugar fall under the “restricted” category.

On May 24, 2022, India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry/Directorate General of Foreign Trade issued Public Notice No. 10/2015-20 (May 24, 2022) (see, Appendix I). The public notice specifies that India is allocating a tariff-rate quota (TRQ) of 2 million metric tons (MMT) for crude soybean oil and a similar TRQ of 2 MMT for crude sunflower oil in India fiscal year (IFY) 2022/23 and in IFY 2023/24. The Indian government’s measure is meant to address the high domestic prices of edible oils, and to check rising food inflation.

Heat stress resulting from an unprecedented spike in temperatures beginning in the mid-March 2022 has had a marked impact India’s wheat crop. Yields are 10-15 percent down, driving India’s forecasted market year (MY) 2022/23 (April-March) wheat production down from 110 million metric tons (MMT) to 99 MMT.

To stem the burgeoning current account deficit and declining foreign exchange reserves, on May 19, 2022, Pakistan banned imports of many categories of agricultural products.