Browse Data and Analysis

In market year (MY) 2023/24, total citrus production in Mexico is expected down slightly by 1.5 percent versus the previous year, driven primarily by a reduction in fresh lime production. While fresh orange production is projected up fractionally, increasingly erratic conditions such as prolonged drought and high temperatures affected the main producing regions in the current year and reduced harvest quality.

For marketing year (MY) 2023/24, Post estimates an increase in fresh lemon production. This upward revision is attributed to producers' expectations of favorable weather conditions. Post’s MY 2022/23 production estimate is revised up 12 percent due to less severe drought conditions than initially expected.

In marketing year (MY) 2023/24, Post projects lemon production to grow by 6.7 percent and reach 175,000 metric tons (MT) due to high profits and an increase in area planted.

FAS Lima forecasts Peruvian mandarin/tangerine production at 545,000 metric tons (MT) for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 (March 2024 to February 2025), a decrease of one percent compared to the previous year.

FAS/San José expects a 15 percent decline in Costa Rica’s marketing year 2023/24 orange crop driving production down to 250,000 metric tons on suboptimal precipitation – associated with an El Niño weather system – during the critical fruit development period in 2023.

In marketing year (MY) 2023/24, due to favorable climatic conditions and abundant rainfall in the winter, Post estimates that avocado production will total 200,000 metric tons (MT), a 21.2 percent increase from MY 2022/23. Area planted will total 32,710 hectares, a one percent growth from MY 2022/23.

Grape production in Peru is forecast to reach 775,500 metric tons (MT) in marketing year (MY) 2023/2024 (October-September), an increase of one percent compared to the previous year.

World peach and nectarine1 production has seen significant growth in the past decade, rising more than 20 percent from 19.6 million tons to 24.2 million in 2022/23.

Overall, Mexico’s market year (MY) 2023/24 deciduous fruit production is projected to remain steady year-to-year, with apple production increasing marginally, but from what is already estimated to be a large MY 2022/23 crop.

Post forecasts fresh deciduous fruit production to rebound to 486,850 MT for apples and 625,400 MT for pears for Marketing Year (MY) 2023/24.

Canadian apple production is forecast to decline three percent in MY 2023/24 on adverse weather events across the main growing provinces. Pear production is forecast to grow slightly on large volume fruit in Ontario and a good crop in British Columbia.

In marketing year (MY) 2023/24, FAS Santiago (Post) estimates table grape production will increase by 13.6 percent, totaling 740,000 metric tons (MT) due to abundant rainfall and high yields.