Browse Data and Analysis

Türkiye’s citrus sector is facing significant challenges in the 2025/26 marketing year, with orange and lemon production sharply reduced due to severe frost and extreme weather, while tangerine output is expected to rebound thanks to resilient early varieties.

China’s raisin production is projected to rebound to 200,000 MT in MY 2025/26, recovering from the prior year when grape output was negatively affected by high temperatures.

The MY 2025/26 citrus season begun amid difficult conditions throughout southern Europe. Spain, Italy, and Greece—the region’s leading citrus production—are experiencing lower yields due to extreme weather, increased pest pressure, and changing market dynamics.

In market year (MY) 2025/26, total citrus production in Mexico is expected to decrease slightly by 0.4 percent from the previous year, driven primarily by a decrease in orange production.

The Brazilian orange crop for Marketing Year (MY) 2025/26 is forecast at 330 million 90-pound boxes (MBx) - standard reference, equivalent to 13.5 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of 3.7 percent compared to previous Post estimate (320 million boxes or 13 MMT), primarily due to satisfactory weather conditions expected in 2026.

Orange production in Australia for fresh consumption and juicing is forecast to rise by 1.7 percent to 590,000 metric tons (MT) in marketing year (MY) 2025/26—the highest level in more than two decades and the sixth consecutive year of growth.

The hotel, restaurant, and catering industry in Guatemala is experiencing significant growth, fueled by rising tourism and an expanding dining-out culture. This growth creates a promising opportunity to enhance the commercialization of processed vegetables, including frozen, canned, and dehydrated options.

Japan’s citrus sector faces continuing structural decline driven by aging producers, labor shortages, and reduced orchard maintenance, resulting in lower mandarin and orange production in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 and a modest recovery expected for MY 2025/26.

China’s production of citrus fruit will grow modestly in marketing year (MY) 2025/26 as consumer demand continues to drive investment in the sector and weather conditions have been generally favorable.

Tangerine production in the Republic of Korea (ROK) for marketing year (MY) 2025/26 is poised to recover 5 percent thanks to favorable yield offsetting acreage loss. Imports of U.S. mandarins are expected to double again in MY 2025/26 as tariffs reach zero under the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS).

Argentina’s lemon production in Marketing Year (MY) 2025/2026 is projected to remain steady at 1.9 million metric tons (MMT), supported by mild weather conditions throughout the growing cycle. Post has adjusted the MY 2024/2025 lemon production estimate significantly upward to 1.91 MMT, based on favorable climatic conditions that boosted yields.

Peru’s fresh tangerine/mandarin production and exports in MY 2025/2026 (March 2026–February 2027) are expected to remain in line with the previous year’s estimates. Production is forecast at 570,000 metric tons (MT), while exports are projected to match last year’s record level of 260,000 MT.