Browse Data and Analysis

The Agricultural Trade Office (ATO)/Sao Paulo estimate for the Brazilian coffee production for Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23 (July-June) was revised downward to 62.6 million 60-kg bags, a decrease of 1.7 million bags relative to the previous estimate, due to lower output in Arabica production.

Indonesia 2022/23 coffee production is expected to rise to 11.35 million bags on improved yields. Domestic coffee consumption is revised down from the last update by 30,000 bags following a hike in fuel prices in September 2022. Green bean exports are revised up to 6.6 million bags on increased international demand and the depreciation of the Indonesian rupiah.

FAS India forecasts marketing year (MY) 2022/23 coffee production (Oct/Sep) at 6.25 million 60-kilogram bags, nine percent higher than the official USDA estimate on above normal southwest monsoon rains (Jun/Sep) expected to improve yields, especially for Robusta varieties in major growing regions.

Excessive rains and cloudiness in the last two years have suppressed Colombia's coffee production. In marketing year (MY) 2022/23, Post forecasts Colombian production at 12.6 million bags of green bean equivalent (GBE) coffee. Although local prices remain high, weather conditions are expected to continue affecting crop productivity.

Post revises its estimate of Vietnam marketing year 2022/2023 (MY 2022/23) coffee production down to 30.22 million bags, green bean equivalent (GBE), due to lower yields, despite abundant rainfall that supported the flowering and cherry setting stages.

Coffee production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 (April to March) is forecast at 354,000 60-kg bags of Green Bean Equivalent (GBE) basis, an increase of 36 percent over the MY 2021/2022 estimate of 261,000 60-kg bags, due an increase in expected area harvested and improved pruning techniques.

Indonesia’s 2022/23 coffee production is forecast to increase by 7 percent from the previous year to 11.35 million (60 kilogram) bags on favorable weather in southern Sumatra. Improved demand following the easing of pandemic-related restrictions is expected to raise domestic coffee consumption to 4.8 million bags in 2022/23.

El Salvador’s coffee production is expected to reach 639,000 sixty-kg bags in marketing year (MY) 2021/22. The Salvadoran coffee sector continues to struggle mainly due to low international prices, climate change, continued coffee leaf rust, and a lack of a long-term strategy that has hindered investment at the farm level. The MY2022/23 crop is forecast to slightly decrease to 619,000 sixty-kg bags.

Kenya’s MY2022/23 coffee production is forecast to decrease by 10 percent to 700,000 bags due to lower yields caused by reduced fertilizer application. MY 2022/23 area planted is anticipated to remain flat at 105,000 hectares as new plantings are curtailed by a shortage of coffee seeds.

FAS/Nairobi forecasts an increase in Uganda’s marketing year (MY) 2022/23 coffee production to a new record of 6.65 million bags due to favorable weather and recently established plantations coming into full production. Arabica production is anticipated to decrease by 5.2 percent to 900,000 bags due to cyclical yield variation.

FAS/San José projects marketing year 2022/23 coffee production at 1,365,000 60-kilogram bags, as production volume rebounds from a 50-year low in marketing year 2021/22 when higher rates of fungal disease compounded the impact of a gradual downward trend in production.

FAS/Managua projects marketing year 2022/23 coffee production unchanged from the previous year at 2.7 million 60-kilogram bags, as political and economic turmoil in Nicaragua are expected to continue limiting investment in the sector despite strong export prices for the marketing year 2021/22 crop.