Browse Data and Analysis

Uzbekistan’s cotton sector is at a crossroads. While opportunities for high-value-added products like textiles and ready-to-wear apparel are expanding, the industry faces financial constraints, shrinking farmland, and water shortages.

For MY 2025/26, Post forecasts cotton area to grow 2.9 percent compared to the current season, to 2.13 million hectares. Post also forecasts cotton production at a record 17.8 million bales (3.87 million metric tons (MMT)).

Post forecasts marketing year (MY) 2025/26 production at 0.86 million 480-lb bales, a 16 percent decrease compared to the previous MY due to high input costs, severe drought conditions, low international cotton prices, power outages, and lack of access to new genetically engineered seed varieties.

Uzbekistan plans to increase its textile exports from $3 billion to $7 billion by 2028, which depends on a stable supply of raw cotton. However, this goal faces challenges as cotton production is under pressure due to various factors.

Post forecasts production for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 at 0.89 million 480-lb bales, a similar level as in MY 2023/24. The planting area is expected to decrease due to farmers switching to more profitable crops, drought conditions, and limited access to water from dams.

In 2024, Brazil surpassed the United States in cotton production and exports for the first time on record. Brazil's MY2024/25 planted area is also estimated to reach a new record. Favorable prices compared to corn as well as lower production costs have boosted cotton's profitability, making it the preferred choice for second crop planting.

Post revised up Brazil’s MY 2024/25 cotton production forecast to 16.6 million 480lb bales (3.6 million metric tons (MMT)), an 11 percent increase compared to the previous MY. The main drivers behind this record output are a forecasted area increase (revised up to 1.94 million hectares), and better-than-anticipated yields across key producing states.

Post forecasts production for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 at 0.85 million 480-lb bales, a similar level as in MY 2023/24. The planting area is expected to decrease due to farmers switching to more profitable crops. Constraints on planted area and yield include limited seed technology, high input costs, extreme temperatures, and drought.

The 2023 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world during the 2023 calendar year.

The global cotton industry is still readjusting to lower post-pandemic demand, and Uzbekistan wasn’t spared the effects of the market overhang. Uzbekistan's strong vertical integration and government support for the industry have helped drive both its resiliency and recovery.

For MY 2024/25, Post forecasts cotton area to grow 13 percent compared to the current season, to 1.87 million hectares. Post also forecasts cotton production at a record 15.4 million bales (3.3 million metric tons (MMT)) on the back of significant area increase.

Post forecasts marketing year (MY) 2024/25 production at 0.91 million 480-lb bales, basically flat compared to MY 2023/24 due to high input costs, drought conditions, power outages, and lack of access to new genetically engineered seed varieties.