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Brazil is the world’s second-largest ethanol and third-largest biodiesel producer but has yet to introduce renewable diesel or sustainable aviation fuel. Post forecasts total ethanol production at 32.5 billion liters in CY 2024, with cane ethanol forecast at 25.5 billion liters and corn ethanol production at seven billion liters.

The People’s Republic of PRC (PRC) bio-based diesel (BBD) exports are expected to drop following the EU provisional antidumping duties of up to 36.4 percent on biodiesel and hydrogenation-derived renewable diesel (HDRD), though sustainable aviation fuel will provisionally be excluded from further duties.

In 2023, consumption of bioethanol and biomass-based diesel (BBD) are estimated to have increased by respectively 4.5 percent to 6.58 billion liters and 0.6 percent to 17.98 billion liters. For bioethanol, the expansion is mainly due to gasoline fuel pool growth, while growth for BBD is entirely due to increased blending.

With a new government in place since December 2023, the biofuels sector is projected to move on to a freer business environment through less limitations and official controls. Changes are expected to come through a new biofuels law or reforms to the current one in place since 2021.

Colombia’s ethanol consumption in 2024 is projected to increase to 728 million liters, mainly owing to the government’s restored 10 percent ethanol mandate (E10). Heightened ethanol demand is expected to be met through imports, primarily from the United States, despite the countervailing duty on U.S. fuel ethanol.

Thailand’s newly proposed National Energy Plan (NEP) lowered the on-road biofuel consumption target to reflect the lower mandated blend rate for biodiesel and set a target for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) from 2026.

In order to support the introduction of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) is going to hold expert committee meetings to discuss the framework of upcoming SAF regulations.