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Brazil is the world’s second-largest ethanol and third-largest biodiesel producer but has yet to introduce renewable diesel or sustainable aviation fuel. Post forecasts total ethanol production at 32.5 billion liters in CY 2024, with cane ethanol forecast at 25.5 billion liters and corn ethanol production at seven billion liters.

The People’s Republic of PRC (PRC) bio-based diesel (BBD) exports are expected to drop following the EU provisional antidumping duties of up to 36.4 percent on biodiesel and hydrogenation-derived renewable diesel (HDRD), though sustainable aviation fuel will provisionally be excluded from further duties.

In 2023, consumption of bioethanol and biomass-based diesel (BBD) are estimated to have increased by respectively 4.5 percent to 6.58 billion liters and 0.6 percent to 17.98 billion liters. For bioethanol, the expansion is mainly due to gasoline fuel pool growth, while growth for BBD is entirely due to increased blending.

With a new government in place since December 2023, the biofuels sector is projected to move on to a freer business environment through less limitations and official controls. Changes are expected to come through a new biofuels law or reforms to the current one in place since 2021.

This report provides an overview of the biofuel use mandates in EU-27 member states, including temporary changes to alleviate inflationary pressure stemming from Russia’s invasion in Ukraine. It supplements the EU Biofuels Annual Report for 2024.

FAS New Delhi expects India’s ethanol production for 2024 to reach 6.35 billion liters (BL), less than a 1 percent change down from last year due to projected decline in sugarcane production and depleting rice grain storage.

During the past few years, the landscape for U.S. renewable diesel production has drastically changed, akin to the growth of ethanol and biodiesel during the past two decades. Driven by federal and state policies aimed at reducing emissions, this dramatic U.S. renewable diesel production and capacity growth is causing significant, market-altering shifts both domestically and to foreign feedstock trade.