Browse Data and Analysis

Brazil is the world’s second-largest ethanol and third-largest biodiesel producer but has yet to introduce renewable diesel or sustainable aviation fuel. Post forecasts total ethanol production at 32.5 billion liters in CY 2024, with cane ethanol forecast at 25.5 billion liters and corn ethanol production at seven billion liters.

The People’s Republic of PRC (PRC) bio-based diesel (BBD) exports are expected to drop following the EU provisional antidumping duties of up to 36.4 percent on biodiesel and hydrogenation-derived renewable diesel (HDRD), though sustainable aviation fuel will provisionally be excluded from further duties.

In 2023, consumption of bioethanol and biomass-based diesel (BBD) are estimated to have increased by respectively 4.5 percent to 6.58 billion liters and 0.6 percent to 17.98 billion liters. For bioethanol, the expansion is mainly due to gasoline fuel pool growth, while growth for BBD is entirely due to increased blending.

With a new government in place since December 2023, the biofuels sector is projected to move on to a freer business environment through less limitations and official controls. Changes are expected to come through a new biofuels law or reforms to the current one in place since 2021.

Indonesian palm oil production is expected to benefit from favorable weather conditions in the upcoming months, fueling production increases.

Argentine bioethanol production in 2018 is forecast at 1.12 billion liters.

Post forecasts 2017/18 and 2016/17 soybean production to 105 and 114 million metric tons (mmt), respectively.

Since 2015, when the government set the overall biofuel mandate at 7.5 percent for transportation, the market has been adjusting to avoid exceeding the volumetric blending limit for biodiesel.