Browse Data and Analysis

China’s MY 2025/26 sugar production is forecast at 11.5 MMT, up 500,000 MT from the MY 2024/25 estimate, as planted areas continue to rise and weather conditions remain favorable.

In market year (MY) 2025/2026, FAS Bogota (Post) forecasts Colombia’s sugar production to recover to 2.3 million metric tons (MMT) due to improved weather conditions from the weakening of the La Niña phenomenon and expected normal weather patterns, positively impacting sugarcane yields and sucrose content.

China’s MY 2024/25 sugar production is forecast at 11 MMT, up 600,000 MT as acreage for both cane and beet are up and competition crops are less profitable.

China’s MY 2024/25 sugar production is forecast at 10.4 MMT as the planted areas for both cane and beet are expected to rise. Given sugar prices are expected to trend down, China’s MY 2024/25 sugar consumption estimate is also forecast to increase to 15.7 MMT.

In marketing year (MY) 2024/2025, Colombia's sugar production is forecast to remain unchanged from the previous MY at 2.25 million metric tons (MMT) owing in part to the onset of the El Niño phenomenon and its dry weather conditions in the second half of 2023.

MY 2022/23 China’s sugar imports declined due to escalating world prices. Following suit, Chinese sugar prices spiked at the highest levels since 2012.

In marketing year (MY) 2023/24, Colombia’s sugar production is forecast to increase 2.2 percent to 2.35 million metric tons (MT), due to the end of "La Niña" weather phenomena and the beginning of "El Niño" weather phenomena.

MY 2022/23 cane sugar production is estimated at 7.92 MMT, revised down 1.08 MMT from the USDA official estimate due to lower-than-normal rainfall in Guangxi, China’s largest sugar producing province. Sugar consumption has begun to rebound since after the removal of COVID-related restrictions. As China’s sugar imports are curbed by high world prices, stocks are likely to decline.

China’s estimated MY2021/22 sugar imports and stocks are revised upward, while consumption is revised downward due to low world prices and COVID-related policy impacts. Assuming beet acreage rebounds in Inner Mongolia, the MY2022/23 sugar production remains forecasted at 10 MMT.

MY 2021/22 estimates for production, trade, and consumption are all revised downward.

In marketing year (MY) 2022/23, Colombia's sugar production is forecast to remain unchanged at 2.3 million metric tons (MT). Although weather conditions are expected to return to normal, crop productivity could be affected by lower fertilizer use due to rising prices.

The sugar production forecast for MY21/22 (October – September) is revised down to 10.3 MMT on slower than expected growth in cane acreage and more sugar beet acreage losing out to corn.