Browse Data and Analysis

Post expects Brazil to remain the world's largest producer of sugarcane and sugar in marketing year (MY) 2025/26. Total sugarcane production is forecast at 671 million metric tons (MMT), and total sugar production is forecast at 44.7 MMT, raw value.

China’s MY 2025/26 sugar production is forecast at 11.5 MMT, up 500,000 MT from the MY 2024/25 estimate, as planted areas continue to rise and weather conditions remain favorable.

For marketing year 2025/26, Indonesian sugarcane and plantation white sugar productions are forecast to further increase to 35.0 million metric tons (MMT) and 2.6 million metric tons (MMT) respectively.

FAS Manila forecasts marketing year (MY) 2026 raw sugar production to remain flat at 1.85 million metric tons (MT). Ample rainfall during the planting season which started in October supported sugarcane planting among farms with no irrigation.

MY 2025/26 sugar production is expected to further increase 2 percent from MY 2024/25. MY 2024/25 sugar demand by industrial uses is likely to decline significantly due to the Chinese ban on Thai sugar syrup exports.

Australia’s sugar production is forecast to decline to 3.8 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2025/26, down from an estimated 3.85 MMT in MY 2024/25, marking the lowest level of production in over a decade.

On February 7, 2025, the Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA) released Sugar Order No. 2 (SO2) authorizing the voluntary purchase of 500,000 metric tons (MT) of raw sugar to avail of an allocation in the government’s sugar importation program.

On February 11, 2025, the Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA) issued Sugar Order No. 3 (SO3), allowing new applications for construction and expansion of bioethanol facilities using molasses as feedstock provided certain conditions are met.

FAS Manila forecasts raw sugar production at 1.85 million metric tons (MT) for marketing year (MY) 2025, higher than the Sugar Regulatory Administration’s (SRA) forecast of 1.78 million MT, due to an expansion in area planted and improvements in weather conditions from the previous El Niño, which is expected to provide better production in MY 2025.

In 2024, Brazil recorded extreme weather events including the intensification of heat waves in several regions. Although the impacts of the fire outbreaks in the sugarcane production are difficult to estimate, the losses caused directly by the fires should not affect Brazil´s total sugar production in the MY 2024/25.

FAS/Bangkok (Post) forecasts MY 2024/25 sugar production to increase to 10.2 MMT. MY 2023/24 sugar exports are likely to decline 26 percent due to competition from Brazil. Post expects sugar exports to double in MY 2024/25 from MY 2023/24 in anticipation of tight exportable sugar supplies in the major exporting countries.

FAS China forecasts commercial production of in-shell walnuts to rebound 11 percent to 1.5 MMT in MY 2024/25 supported by favorable growing conditions in major production areas. Improved world supplies and changing dietary concepts will likely drive nut imports to continue rising.