Browse Data and Analysis

Post expects Brazil to remain the world's largest producer of sugarcane and sugar in marketing year (MY) 2025/26. Total sugarcane production is forecast at 671 million metric tons (MMT), and total sugar production is forecast at 44.7 MMT, raw value.

FAS/Managua projects MY 2025/26 sugar production to reach 840,000 metric tons, up ten percent from MY 2024/25, assuming a more balanced rainy season and an increase in sugarcane plantations.

China’s MY 2025/26 sugar production is forecast at 11.5 MMT, up 500,000 MT from the MY 2024/25 estimate, as planted areas continue to rise and weather conditions remain favorable.

Market year (MY) 2025/2026 Venezuelan sugar production is forecast to grow upward to 415,000 metric tons on account of steady yields, continued access to crop inputs, and sustained profit margins within the sugar industry.

Post forecasts Mexico’s sugar production at 5.4 million metric tons raw value (MMT-RV) for marketing year (MY) 2025/26 (October 1 – September 30), 6 percent higher than the estimate for MY 2024/25. The increased production forecast is based on seasonal rains in several sugarcane-producing states during MY 2024/25 and an expected recovery of the planted area in MY 2025/26.

For marketing year 2025/26, Indonesian sugarcane and plantation white sugar productions are forecast to further increase to 35.0 million metric tons (MMT) and 2.6 million metric tons (MMT) respectively.

FAS/San José expects sugar production in marketing year 2024/2025 to decline by seven percent to 394,000 metric tons (MT). Lower production is the result of adverse weather conditions during the development stage of the sugarcane, as well as during the early stages of the harvest.

In market year (MY) 2025/2026, FAS Bogota (Post) forecasts Colombia’s sugar production to recover to 2.3 million metric tons (MMT) due to improved weather conditions from the weakening of the La Niña phenomenon and expected normal weather patterns, positively impacting sugarcane yields and sucrose content.

Production for Jamaica sugar is projected to fall to 33,000 metric tons (MT) for marketing year (MY) October 2025 to September 2026, consistent with the ongoing downward trend observed in the industry.

FAS Manila forecasts marketing year (MY) 2026 raw sugar production to remain flat at 1.85 million metric tons (MT). Ample rainfall during the planting season which started in October supported sugarcane planting among farms with no irrigation.

MY 2025/26 sugar production is expected to further increase 2 percent from MY 2024/25. MY 2024/25 sugar demand by industrial uses is likely to decline significantly due to the Chinese ban on Thai sugar syrup exports.

In MY 2023/24, Guatemala ranked as the world’s second most efficient sugarcane producer and fourth in overall sugar production efficiency. For MY 2025/26, production is forecast to remain steady, with planted and harvested areas unchanged from the previous two years, and growth expected in MY 2026/27.