Browse Data and Analysis

FAS/Pretoria’s Sugar annual report provides information on the production, supply, and distribution of sugar in South Africa for marketing year (MY) 2023/24, MY 2024/25, and MY 2025/26.

Sugar production in 2025/26 is projected to reach 6.6 million tons, which is 13.7 percent higher than the 2024/25 estimated production. This increase is based on expectations for improved sugar content and average cane yield.

Hot and dry conditions in the autumn and winter of 2024 led to a drop in the production of South African sugar cane. This is expected to translate into a slight decrease in sugar production and exports.

With the outlook for the sugar industry largely unchanged from the previous report, no significant changes are made to the supply and demand tables.

On July 19, 2024, the South African government published a new sugar import tariff of R1,093 per metric ton (US$60.09/MT). This tariff change was triggered by a downward trend in global sugar prices and will apply to sugar imported into the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU).

Post expects sugar cane production in MY 2024/25 to show modest growth on carry-over cane and slight increase in harvested area. Sugar production is forecast to improve on slight increase in cane deliveries. The sugar industry effected notional price hikes of white and brown sugar which translated to increases in retail prices of sugar.

Due to a slight increase in cane area and production, sugar production in 2024/25 is forecast to reach 6.8 million tons, 3 percent higher than 2023/24. In line with population growth and demand from the food processing sector, continued moderate growth in sugar consumption is forecast.

Post forecasts South African raw sugar production at 2.17 million MT in MY 2023/24, up 9 percent from 2 million MT in MY 2022/23, based on an increase in the quantity of cane delivered to the mills and consistent milling efficiencies.

Post forecasts South Africa’s sugar cane crop will increase by 3 percent to 18.5 million metric tons (MT) in market year (MY) 2023/24 assuming a return to normal weather conditions, an improvement in yields, and industry efforts to increase production, especially for small-scale farmers.

Sugar production in 2023/24 is forecast at 7.05 million tons, three percent above the 2022/23 estimate. The marginal increase is due to expectations for a recovery in cane area harvested compared to the flood-damaged 2022/23 crop.

On October 28, 2022, Tongaat Hullet’s management announced that they opted to go into voluntary business rescue due to the company’s severe levels of financial distress. On Tuesday November 1, Tongaat Hullet missed the deadline to pay R401 million ($22.9 million) for cane delivered by 4,300 growers in September.

Post estimates that the South African sugar cane crop will grow by 7 percent to 18.4 million metric tons (MT) in the 2022/23 market year (MY), up from 17.2 million MT in the 2021/22 MY. This is based on a return to normal weather conditions, an improvement in yields, and industry efforts to increase production, especially for small-scale farmers.