Browse Data and Analysis

FAS/Pretoria’s Sugar annual report provides information on the production, supply, and distribution of sugar in South Africa for marketing year (MY) 2023/24, MY 2024/25, and MY 2025/26.

MY 2025/26 sugar production is expected to further increase 2 percent from MY 2024/25. MY 2024/25 sugar demand by industrial uses is likely to decline significantly due to the Chinese ban on Thai sugar syrup exports.

Hot and dry conditions in the autumn and winter of 2024 led to a drop in the production of South African sugar cane. This is expected to translate into a slight decrease in sugar production and exports.

FAS/Bangkok (Post) forecasts MY 2024/25 sugar production to increase to 10.2 MMT. MY 2023/24 sugar exports are likely to decline 26 percent due to competition from Brazil. Post expects sugar exports to double in MY 2024/25 from MY 2023/24 in anticipation of tight exportable sugar supplies in the major exporting countries.

On July 19, 2024, the South African government published a new sugar import tariff of R1,093 per metric ton (US$60.09/MT). This tariff change was triggered by a downward trend in global sugar prices and will apply to sugar imported into the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU).

MY 2024/25 sugar production is expected to recover from a 20 percent slump in MY 2023/24. Sugar consumption growth will likely decelerate in MY 2023/24 and MY 2024/25, following Thailand’s slow economic recovery and shrinking sugar demand by non-alcoholic beverage manufacturers due to the progressive sugar tax.

Post expects sugar cane production in MY 2024/25 to show modest growth on carry-over cane and slight increase in harvested area. Sugar production is forecast to improve on slight increase in cane deliveries. The sugar industry effected notional price hikes of white and brown sugar which translated to increases in retail prices of sugar.

A drought during the intensive growth stage impacted MY2023/24 sugarcane production and led Post to lower the sugar production forecast by 15 percent from MY2022/23.

Post forecasts South African raw sugar production at 2.17 million MT in MY 2023/24, up 9 percent from 2 million MT in MY 2022/23, based on an increase in the quantity of cane delivered to the mills and consistent milling efficiencies.

Post forecasts South Africa’s sugar cane crop will increase by 3 percent to 18.5 million metric tons (MT) in market year (MY) 2023/24 assuming a return to normal weather conditions, an improvement in yields, and industry efforts to increase production, especially for small-scale farmers.

Sugar production in MY2022/23 and MY2023/24 is still far below record production levels due to reduced sugarcane acreage.

On October 28, 2022, Tongaat Hullet’s management announced that they opted to go into voluntary business rescue due to the company’s severe levels of financial distress. On Tuesday November 1, Tongaat Hullet missed the deadline to pay R401 million ($22.9 million) for cane delivered by 4,300 growers in September.