Browse Data and Analysis

Post New Delhi forecasts total oilseed production to reach 43 million metric tons (MMT) for the marketing year (MY) 2025/26, marking a slight increase. For the first time, rapeseed production is expected to surpass soybean production, driven by improved price realization.

The installation of Bangladesh’s Interim Government in August 2024, has led to a renewed focus on macroeconomic stability, which will enable increased exports to the market as restrictions on Letters of Credit ease as foreign currency reserves stabilize.

FAS New Delhi lowered the marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 forecast for rapeseed area harvested to 8.9 million hectares (HA) and production to 11.7 million metric tons (MMT), due to a shift in cropping pattern toward more lucrative crops.

In October 2024, the National Biosafety Committee (NBC) authorized imports of genetically engineered (GE) soybeans for food, feed, and processing. GE soybean imports are expected to resume in 2025, boosting prospects that the 1.5-million-ton import forecast for 2024/25 will be achieved.

India’s oilseeds production in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 (October-September) is forecast to reach 41.9 million metric tons (MMT), a marginal drop from MY2023/2024 estimate of 42.7 MMT due weaker prices for Indian producers, limited agricultural input availability, and weather trends.

FAS Manila forecasts MY 2024/25 soybean meal imports to reach 3.2 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of 4 percent attributed to the growing feed demand for livestock, poultry, and aquaculture. The projected 3 percent growth in soybean meal equivalent (SME) consumption coincides with the forecasted 3 percent increase in livestock production during the same period.

While there is still considerable uncertainty regarding implementation, in January 2024 the government approved a system allowing for the resumption of genetically engineered commodity imports.

On June 14, 2023, India’s Ministry of Finance issued Public Notice No. 39/2023 - Customs that reduces the import duty on refined sunflower and soybean oils.

FAS Manila forecasts copra production at 3 million MT for MY 2023/24 because of the coming El Niño and the break from the 3-year productive cycle. Soybean meal imports are projected to reach 2.9 million MT because of expected expansion in the broiler and aquaculture sectors.

As of March 2023, Pakistani authorities still ban genetically engineered (GE) oilseed imports. While they have made some progress in developing a system to allow for GE oilseed imports, uncertainty regarding when that system will be operative clouds the outlook for oilseed imports.

India’s rapeseed and mustard (rapeseed-mustard) production estimate for marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 (October-September) is forecast to drop slightly to 11.4 million metric tons, harvested from a record 9.2 million hectares following a favorable monsoon performance in the state of Rajasthan.

Due to the recent ban on genetically engineered (GE) commodity imports, the 2022/23 soybean import forecast is reduced from 2.5 to 1.2 million tons. With the lower expected soybean imports, 2022/23 crush and soybean meal output is reduced accordingly.